The alarming rise of left-wing populism should put Labour on alert

TThe United Kingdom is “not immune” to the rise of nationalism and populism on the continent, said Keir Starmer. The new statesman‘s summer party on Monday.

“Don’t think for a minute that this could never happen here,” he said. “It could – and it could if we fail in our attempt to bring about change and to be a government of service … that restores faith in the idea that politics can be a force for change.”

Although Labour had pre-election plans to crack down on crime and immigration once in power, Nigel Farage’s victory on 4 July has reinforced that desire. Reform UK spooked Labour by coming in second with 89 seats, raising fears that Farage could attract voters disillusioned with politics in general and the Labour government in particular.

But there is a danger that Labour is not paying enough attention to the equally serious threat posed from the left – the Greens and independents, including pro-Palestinian activists. Labour does not normally have enemies on the left, but it will have to get used to it.

During the election, Labour was aware of the threat posed by the Greens and feared that Thangam Debbonaire, then shadow culture minister, would lose to them in Bristol Central. But Labour was blindsided by the pro-Palestinian activists. When Wes Streeting expressed concern that he might be threatened by a candidate in Ilford North, Labour officials diagnosed a bout of “candidate nerves” – but Streeting was right: his majority of 5,218 votes was reduced to just 528, and Jonathan Ashworth unexpectedly lost to another such opponent in Leicester South.

Labour has acknowledged the Farage issue but has been less vocal on left-wing populism. That has worried some smart Labour leaders. Andrew Harrop, outgoing general secretary of the Labour-affiliated Fabian Society, said that at the next election Labour would be “vulnerable to voters defecting to the Greens or Liberal Democrats, not just the Conservatives”. He added: “Keir Starmer will have to prove himself to voters who care about global conflict, environmental protection and social justice – not just those who are torn between Labour and the Conservatives.”

Although the two-child limit will surely be abolished at some point, there will be many similar demands – and even if Labour raises taxes in the autumn, the government will not have enough money to satisfy its left-wing critics. I think Starmer was right to suspend the seven MPs who opposed the government on the two-child limit. But it could exacerbate his problem on the left.

Before the election, Starmer’s allies had expected a group of left-wing MPs to rebel, lose party power and join forces with Jeremy Corbyn – but they were relaxed about the prospect. Even with a massive majority, they cannot afford to be so relaxed now. Corbyn – who retained his Islington North seat after Labour dumped him – and the other four independents have already written to the seven Labour rebels. There are even rumours of a new radical left party, perhaps building on Corbyn’s new peace and justice project, which could also attract the support of some left-wing trade unions.

Before the general election it seemed unlikely that such a party would succeed under our archaic first-past-the-post system, but the volatility that swept the Tories away could do the same to Labour next time if it fails to deliver. It would be a mistake for Labour to see this year’s election as a ‘Gaza election’; independents have and will campaign on other issues.

The threat to the Conservatives from their right is more obvious, and Farage will cast a shadow over their election as party leader. But the Tories lost almost as many of their 2019 votes to Labour and the Liberal Democrats (17 percent combined) as they did to Reform (25 percent) – and many more seats.

Still, the leadership contenders are pandering to right-wing grassroots voters. One Nation candidate Tom Tugendhat has threatened to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, a body he has previously defended. A lurch to the right risks alienating the centrist voters the Tories need to win back. Policy positions that win votes in the leadership race – such as supporting withdrawal from the Convention and opposing net zero, wokery and closer ties with the EU – will not persuade enough centrist voters in a general election.

Even if the Tories were to win back all the supporters who defected to Reform this month, “uniting the right” would not necessarily bring electoral gains. According to More in Common, only three in 10 Tory voters said they would vote for Reform. More are willing to switch to parties further to the left.

Nor can the Tories assume that the tactical vote against them this month was a one-off. The shift to the right will only amplify it. Starmer will try to cling closely to the Liberal Democrats and his non-aggression pact with Ed Davey looks set to hold, even though Labour is in power.

To win the next election, both Labour and the Tories must learn to look both left and right.