Biden and Trump are dead in Wisconsin, says Marquette poll

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck with just under four months to go before Election Day, and voters in Wisconsin could once again represent a turning point for the nation.

According to the latest Marquette University Law School poll, the incumbent Democratic president is tied with his Republican predecessor among registered voters in Wisconsin, a swing state where statewide elections are often decided by just a few thousand votes. Among likely voters, Biden is at 51%, ahead of Trump at 49%.

But voter enthusiasm is overwhelmingly on Trump’s side, and that could be crucial in November, says Charles Franklin, director of polls at Marquette University Law School.

“Joe Biden could lose this election quite significantly if he has failed to excite his supporters,” Franklin said Wednesday at an event on the Marquette University campus. “They are not enthusiastic about him and his campaign and are likely to vote less than those who are very enthusiastic and who are overwhelmingly for Trump.”

Wednesday’s poll shows that voters who describe themselves as very enthusiastic about the election are 61% on Trump’s side and 39% on Biden’s side, and voters who describe themselves as less enthusiastic about the election are leaning toward Biden by a wide margin, Franklin said.

Preparing for the elections: See who is running for president and compare the candidates’ positions on key issues in our voter guide.

“That raises a big question about turnout and what matters here, because Biden has real strength with voters who aren’t engaged,” he said. “Trump has real strength with people who are really excited to get involved. And how does that balance out?”

Franklin said the Democrats’ tendency to vote more frequently when they are enthusiastic could also turn the election campaign into a guessing game.

“The Democrats have an advantage now because their voters have higher turnout. That’s true, but enthusiasm also plays a role in that, and that’s really what the Democrats are suffering from right now. So I don’t know how that’s going to play out,” he said.

More:Biden’s Wisconsin campaign plans “massive mobilization” around CNN debate

Taking third-party candidates into account, Trump is two percentage points ahead of Biden in Wednesday’s poll (43% to 40%).

In April, Marquette pollsters found that Biden and Trump were virtually tied, with a lead over Trump of just 2 percentage points—well within the margin of error.

Among registered and likely voters surveyed in April, 51 percent supported Trump and 49 percent supported Biden. That includes undecided voters (8 percent of respondents) who were asked who they would support if they had to choose now. Undecided voters tended to vote for Biden, Franklin said in April.

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