Experts call on Houston to look to college ranks

In recent years, the Houston Astros have been rather hamstrung in the MLB Draft due to their consistently high numbers as well as the penalties imposed on them after the sign-stealing scandal. It’s hard enough to find top-tier talent when you’re picking at the bottom of the first round every year, but it’s exponentially harder when you lose your 2020 and 2021 first-round picks.

That said, the Astros clearly still know how to find value in the draft. Jake Bloss was their third-round pick in the 2023 draft, and he just made his big league debut on Friday. Other recent successful projects include Jacob Melton, Joey Loperfido and Zach Dezenzo, among others.

This year, the Astros again pick in the first round at 28th overall thanks to their outcome in the ALCS in 2023. It’s extremely difficult to predict what will happen this far into the first round, but here’s a look at what that the draft is expected to decrease when Houston makes its first-round pick in the upcoming 2024 MLB Draft.

We’re focusing on three well-respected media outlets for this mock draft with Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and The Athletic. No disrespect to other outlets, as there are plenty of good (or at least fun) ones, but these are places where you know the writers have real baseball connections and could get some insight teams. real thought.

We’ll tackle The Athletic first, as Keith Law will probably be the one who disagrees the most with the expert consensus, although he always supports his thinking with useful ideas. That said, the Astros are picking Iowa RHP Brody Brecht in his latest mock draft, which seems a bit ambitious. This would be a great fit, as Brecht has a high-octane fastball and fade slider that reminds some of Paul Skenes when he’s on it (although the walks have been an issue). The bigger issue is whether he’ll actually be there when the Astros pick, and there’s a real chance he won’t.

As for MLB Pipeline, Brecht hasn’t gotten past the Dodgers and has plenty of more interesting college players who could disappear before Houston’s picks. Instead, Callis and Mayo released Pipeline’s latest mock draft with the Astros taking Stanford catcher Malcolm Moore. Clearly, the Astros already have their catcher of the future in Yainer Diaz, but it’s all about buying his bat, which gets high marks for power across the board. He probably needs to move away from the receiver, but that would fit Houston’s needs very well and would be a nice pick-up late in the first round.

Finally, we come to Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, who has a pretty solid track record of accuracy with these mock drafts and is constantly seeking out real sources who know the teams’ thinking. In BA’s 4.0 draft, Brecht is picked up just before Houston’s pick and the Astros don’t pass on Moore, instead with Tennessee third baseman Billy Amick. Obviously, there’s a very good chance that Houston will have to replace Alex Bregman after this season and Amick has the ability to hit for average and power, although his aggressiveness at the plate may need to be tempered against higher quality pitchers if he wishes. never draw a walk.

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