If Trump is convicted, how will Biden’s team go on the attack?

Normally, it would be a cause for celebration if one’s presidential opponent were convicted of a crime.

But now it is 2024. As President Biden’s campaign team and his closest allies await a possible verdict in the criminal case against Donald J. Trump in New York, they have come to the joint decision that even a conviction should not change their plan to shape the election campaign around their central issues of abortion rights and democracy.

At the same time, many Democrats are horrified by the idea that Trump could become a felon, and the Biden team will not do everything in its power to remind voters of that fact.

That tension will determine the Democrats’ response if a Manhattan jury does indeed convict Trump in the next few days, an outcome that could come as a thunderbolt to the news media and the country’s political class. No American politician of Trump’s stature has run for president after being convicted, and there is no precedent for how to respond or how it would affect the 2024 election. If Trump is indeed acquitted or the jury cannot agree, the entire Democratic Party will naturally try to move on as quickly as possible, even as he boasts of his vindication.

On Tuesday, the Biden team showed off its skills, holding a press conference outside the Manhattan courthouse where Trump is on trial, attended by Robert De Niro and two former U.S. Capitol Police officers. After the press conference, De Niro deviated far from the script the Biden team had written for him by directly addressing the prospect of convicting Trump.

“The fact is, he’s guilty whether he’s acquitted or the jury can’t agree – and we all know that,” DeNiro said. “I’ve never seen anyone get out of so many things, and we all know that. Everyone in the world knows that.”

When asked if he thought Trump should be in prison, De Niro replied: “I certainly think so. Absolutely.”

The Trump campaign team immediately accused Biden of using a political trick.

Biden could break his long silence on the trial once its outcome is known. Previously, his comments had been limited to mildly taunting Trump about falling asleep in court and other non-legal matters. And if the jury convicts the former president, Biden’s campaign and allies will likely draw attention to their opponent’s new criminal record. The Biden campaign’s social media team, for example, has already had initial discussions about whether to brand the presumptive Republican nominee as “convicted felon Donald Trump” in his posts.

But the Biden team sees little evidence that a guilty verdict would change the course of the presidential campaign. It believes it is better to focus on the contrast between the two candidates on Biden’s most important issues. It is also concerned that it could bolster Trump’s unfounded claims that a vengeful Biden orchestrated the criminal case.

“People shouldn’t wait for a conviction to play a role in this election, because nothing with Trump ever followed conventional wisdom,” said Jim Messina, who ran President Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign and is a trusted outside adviser to Biden’s team.

The president’s campaign, Mr Messina added, “does not need to draw attention to any impending criminal convictions when there are more important issues that matter more to voters and directly affect their lives.”

The Biden team has not shied away from attacking Trump. Last week, it stepped up its months-long rhetorical blitzkrieg and added a personal element. Doug Emhoff, husband of Vice President Kamala Harris, called Trump a “known anti-Semite,” and a campaign ad delivered by Robert De Niro said Trump “went nuts” after losing the 2020 election.

Convicting Trump would create new areas of attack, but spending time and energy on that would involve strategic risks.

How much a conviction would change people’s opinion of Trump remains the campaign’s $64,000 question. The results of public opinion polls are mixed, and because no felon has ever run as a presidential candidate for one of the country’s major parties, there is little confidence in the results.

Still, in a Quinnipiac University poll last week, only 6 percent of potential Trump voters said a conviction would make them less likely to vote for him in November. Among independents, 23 percent said they would be less likely to support him after a conviction.

A significant number of Democrats believe that if Trump is convicted, Biden’s allies should make this development a central focus of the 2024 campaign, even as the campaign itself focuses on other issues.

“I mean, are we really going to elect a convicted criminal?” asked California Rep. Robert Garcia. “It makes no sense to ignore the fact that Donald Trump was convicted. Why shouldn’t that be part of his personality and an important part of his presidential campaign?”

The campaign announced Tuesday that it would send Harry Dunn and other former U.S. Capitol police officers on a tour of swing states starting this week to raise awareness of Trump’s actions that led to the Jan. 6 riots – an attempt to undermine democracy that the Biden team believes is more likely to sway voters to the president’s side than a guilty verdict in Manhattan.

The Biden team’s events, which the campaign said will be held jointly with local law enforcement officials, are intended to highlight Trump’s penchant for inciting political violence and what Democrats say is his widespread disregard for the rule of law.

While the Biden team currently has no plans to draw attention to a condemnation of Trump in its advertising in the swing states, others are willing to do so.

The Lincoln Project, a center-right group known for taunting Trump with catchy ads, plans to air ads on digital platforms in Arizona and Wisconsin if Trump is convicted, according to Rick Wilson, one of the organization’s founders.

Wilson said his group, which often deviated from Democratic orthodoxy after 2016 by launching scathing personal attacks against Trump, also ran targeted ads on the cellphones of close Trump confidants and on cable channels likely to air at Trump’s clubs in Bedminster, New Jersey, and Palm Beach, Florida.

Biden’s aides believe the main benefit of a conviction could be more incidental: It would provide a dose of reality to the legions of voters who still do not believe or accept that the election will be a battle between the current president and his predecessor.

According to this school of thought, any reminder that Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee is good for Biden’s prospects. The coverage and social media reaction to a conviction would remind people that Biden is the choice against a felon, so his campaign wouldn’t have to bear that burden.

“I don’t think anyone believes it’s a panacea,” said Matt Bennett, founder of the centrist think tank Third Way, which is supporting Democrats in their efforts to re-elect Biden. “Everyone is aware that there is a risk of blowback, but on the other hand, the fact that he was convicted of a serious crime is not going to go unnoticed.”

Then the question becomes what the Democrats will do if Trump is acquitted or the jury fails to reach a verdict and a mistrial is declared. For Biden’s campaign team, life would go on and they would continue to press Trump on abortion and democracy.

Mr Trump’s plans are predictable.

Although Trump has kept a relatively low profile in public due to a news blackout imposed by a New York judge, he has a history of lashing out at his enemies in an angry and vengeful manner, and he will likely continue to do so after this trial, whatever the outcome.

Mr. Trump will view anything short of a conviction as a major victory, as he did when he was acquitted in the first impeachment trial. And he will try to change public opinion about the three pending cases against him.

And it would not be difficult to find Democrats in a state of panic after the trial.

For years, Democrats have wanted Trump prosecuted and convicted. He also faces federal charges for his actions leading up to the Jan. 6 riots and his handling of classified documents. He also faces state charges in Georgia for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election there.

But none of the three other criminal cases against Trump are likely to go to trial before November, leaving the Manhattan case as the only way to hold him accountable for alleged wrongdoing before he can win back the presidency and at least dismiss the two federal cases. Legal experts generally rate the Manhattan case as the least serious of the four.

Some Democrats, who have watched for years as Trump survived moments that would have brought down any other politician, urged caution in their messages about a guilty verdict from Manhattan.

Kathleen Sullivan, a former New Hampshire Democratic Party chairwoman, said convicting a former president would be a “dark” moment and that Democrats should avoid sounding “gloating” in their attempts to score political points.

“You have to be careful not to overextend yourself,” she said.