The risk of storms continues this afternoon

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Weather of the first warning:

• Sunday is a first alert weather day
• Damaging winds, heavy hail, tornadoes and flash floods are possible during afternoon thunderstorms
• The focus for severe storms has shifted southwards
• Don’t let your guard down, severe storms are still possible in the metro
• From Monday there will FINALLY be a break from the storms

Sunday is a First Alert Weather Day: Watch for more severe weather this afternoon and evening. The morning wave of storms has pushed the risk for severe weather further south of St. Louis. However, just because St. Louis has been downgraded to a Level 1 threat does not mean we are safe. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR CAUTION IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO, I still see the possibility of severe weather including hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado. These would be more isolated to scattered now and would develop during the afternoon, primarily around or after 2 p.m. along and south of I-70.

Further south, then, levels 2 and 3 (the highest of 5) begin to increase the chances of severe weather. As an outflow boundary forms to the south, it becomes much more unstable along and south of the boundary and therefore has more storm fuel and better ingredients for strong tornadoes, very large hail and winds over 70 mph.

Bottom line: Despite the downgrade of the danger level for the St. Louis metropolitan area, I think we need to be very alert for severe weather and at least storms disrupting outdoor plans at times between 2 and 10 p.m. It won’t rain the whole time and not everyone will be hit by storms. But we hope you stay alert and I’ll be in the office today with updates on First Alert 4 and the First Alert 4 weather app as needed.

Monday (Remembrance Day) looks dry and partly cloudy, with decreasing humidity – a welcome break after an active Sunday. The calm weather is likely to continue for most of the next work week.

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