Isolated storm probability this week

Happy Memorial Day! The Ozarks deserve a break today after this weekend’s storms. Mostly clear skies are forecast for this evening. A light wind may bring light fog by morning. Lows will settle at over 10 degrees.

The Ozarks will be caught in what we call a northwesterly flow this week. This means that the jet stream is coming into the area from the northwest. This is important because this time of year, small disturbances can ride the jet stream and create small accumulations of showers and thunderstorms. A few isolated showers are possible on Tuesday, mainly southwest of Springfield. This activity is not expected to be very heavy. Highs will reach around 80 degrees.

There is a second chance of rain on Wednesday. The global model predicts a fairly high probability of storms, although these are not likely to be severe. The high temperatures with more cloud cover and a higher chance of rain will be above 25 degrees Celsius.

Thursday is expected to be a dry day, but at least one model is giving us the possibility of a few showers. For now, I expect the day to be partly cloudy with highs around 77 degrees Fahrenheit. On Friday, a much larger disturbance will move toward the Ozarks. There should be more moisture and better lifting mechanisms, so storms could get a little stronger. Highs should stay around 77 degrees Fahrenheit.

June is typically the most rainy month in the Ozarks, so it’s no surprise that storms will ring in the new month on Saturday. Highs could climb back up to 80 degrees. Warmer weather is forecast for Sunday, with highs around 80 degrees. There’s a chance of storms early next week.

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