Hezbollah attack on Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean unlikely

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah speaks to his supporters in Beirut, Lebanon. Photo: Reuters.

JNS.org – In June, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered a speech threatening the eastern Mediterranean, raising fears in Israel that the Iran-backed terror group based in Lebanon might try to copy the Houthis’ tactics in the Red Sea.

Nasrallah specifically pointed to possible attacks on Israeli property in the Mediterranean, stressing the vulnerability of military and commercial shipping as well as offshore gas facilities.

Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), told JNS that if Hezbollah closes the eastern Mediterranean to shipping, it could have “almost as negative an impact on Israel’s trade and economy as attacks on Haifa itself, as this port is a major lifeline and hub for Israel.”

Ruhe said this would “place an even greater burden on the U.S. Navy, which is already expanding its operations and expending expensive, valuable munitions to maintain freedom of navigation in the region.”

“More broadly,” he added, “this could lead to a deterrence of much-needed energy production and exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean, which benefits the United States, Israel and their European partners.”

In his speech, Nasrallah referred to past conflicts in which Hezbollah surprised Israel with naval attacks and suggested that similar tactics could be used again.

During the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Hezbollah damaged the INS Hanita Sa’ar-5-class corvette of the Israeli Navy’s 3rd Flotilla after it was attacked with a C-701 anti-ship missile.

Israel apparently did not activate the appropriate defense systems at that time.

Hezbollah is believed to have an arsenal of more than 150,000 missiles, including long-range and precision missiles that could reach any part of Israel and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, rejected the idea that Hezbollah could block maritime traffic in the eastern Mediterranean.

“I am not sure Hezbollah is capable of doing this,” he said, unless it works with the Turks.

He suggested that Hezbollah might try to use precision-guided munitions against ships, but noted that Israel has defensive capabilities against such threats.

Ultimately, Inbar said, Israel is not concerned that Hezbollah could achieve this.

Nasrallah also warned that Hezbollah would target Cyprus if it allowed Israel to use its military facilities in a future conflict with Lebanon.

Hanin Ghaddar, Farzin Nadimi and David Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote in June that Nasrallah’s threat to Cyprus was not arbitrary but had its roots in long-standing relations between Nicosia and Jerusalem, which included joint military exercises to counter threats from Hezbollah and Iran.

Cyprus has affirmed its neutrality, although it hosts British military bases, including RAF Akrotiri, which contribute to regional security. The 1960 founding treaty grants Britain sovereignty over these bases, with obligations for Cyprus and cooperation mandates for Greece and Turkey in Cyprus’s defence. Cyprus’s EU membership could potentially trigger collective defence measures if Hezbollah attacks the island.

Currently, Cyprus does not have a robust air and missile defense network, although plans to acquire Israeli Iron Dome systems are being discussed.

The island’s vulnerability to Hezbollah rocket attacks is a cause for concern, particularly given the strong military presence of allies, including British and American forces, and logistical support in regional conflicts.

If Israel were to lose access to its runways due to Hezbollah’s bombings and had to launch its attacks from, say, the RAF base at Akrotiri, then the attacks would in principle be carried out from British soil. This would also apply if Hezbollah were to attack that base.

But according to Inbar, Britain – at least under the current government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer – would not allow Israel to use its bases in Cyprus, nor would Hezbollah attack its bases.

Ruhe agreed, but warned: “Never say never, no matter what happens after October 7, but probably never.”

Ruhe said the British had been “admirably willing to use their bases in Cyprus to defend the region against missiles and drones and to supply Israel with supplies.”

However, he pointed out that these were “indirect steps” and “can be interpreted as defensive, as opposed to the possibility of allowing Israel to use these same bases for offensive operations against Hezbollah, even if Hezbollah fires the first shots in this larger war.”

If its airfields are neutralized by a Hezbollah attack, Israel has no real alternatives. For this reason, Ruhe said, “it can be assumed that in a major war with Hezbollah, the Israeli armed forces will use their air defenses to defend their air bases, even if this means that large parts of the country remain unprotected.”

Even if Israel wanted to use Cyprus to attack Hezbollah, there would be complications, according to Ruhe.

“There is a risk of diplomatic backlash if you risk a conflict that the EU and even NATO, via the British bases, do not want to be involved in,” he said. “This is particularly true if it looks like Israel is launching ‘unprovoked’ attacks from the island, given the world’s willingness to unfairly and hastily condemn everything Israel is currently doing.”

Ruhe also said that the use of Cyprus “complicates the ability of the Israeli Air Force to carry out the large number of missions it would have to carry out in a major war with Hezbollah, as the island is further away from Lebanon and would not have the logistical equipment, facilities, etc. of the Israeli air force bases at home.”

Ruhe said that if Hezbollah actually attacked Royal Air Force bases in Cyprus, “it would mean that a NATO member would be drawn into the matter and an EU member would also be threatened.”

He pointed out that this could “rapidly escalate a conflict that Hezbollah (and Iran) would prefer to wage against a diplomatically isolated and militarily encircled Israel.”

In addition, said Ruhe, an attack on Cyprus “would involve compromises for Hezbollah.”

“With every long-range missile and drone they send toward Cyprus, they have one less weapon they can use to threaten Israel with catastrophic damage. Israel is the military planning construct around which Iran has zealously built Hezbollah into the best-armed non-state actor in the world,” he said.

Ruhe said Nasrallah’s threat against Cyprus “underscores two major priorities.”

First, he said, the United States must “urgently and seriously ensure that Israel can wage a major conflict as decisively and quickly as possible.”

Second, and related to this, the demand is: “The United States must clearly warn Tehran and its proxies against attempting to escalate a potential conflict with Israel.”

US special envoy Amos Hochstein is reportedly close to brokering an agreement between Israel and Lebanon.

According to Ruhe, the British, like the Americans, “do not want to take any further risks in the Middle East and currently seem to believe that they could still avert, or at least avoid, a major war between Israel and Hezbollah.”