What should the Houston Rockets do if they land the top pick in the lottery?

When a good NBA team lands a high draft pick, that’s one of the true blessings they can receive. This represents an incredible opportunity. This team is already competitive: and now they can add a blue-chip prospect to the fold.

Alternatively, they could trade their choice. Even in a weak draft, a top pick has tremendous value. It’s a surefire opportunity, right?

We wouldn’t go that far. Do you remember Darko Milicic? Your answer to this question probably depends on your age. Our young readers will not remember Milicic at all. Our older readers will remember him as one of the biggest draft busts in NBA history.

The Detroit Pistons selected him with the second overall pick in the legendary 2003 NBA Draft. They could have added Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade to a core that had just made the Eastern Conference Finals. Instead, they added a player who would never have averaged 10 points per game at the NBA level.

It feels like the Pistons overthought this. They apparently decided they could take a chance on a project given their success. It didn’t stop them from winning the 2004 NBA title, but it could have stopped them from forming the league’s next great dynasty.

How can the Houston Rockets avoid the same fate if they land the top pick?

On May 12, we will know the fate of the Rockets in the lottery. They should land the ninth pick. Let’s imagine a world where their choice ranks in the top 3.

Their situation won’t be perfectly comparable to that of the ’03 Pistons. Once again, this team had just advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Rockets are a .500 team.

There is, however, a parallel. The Rockets are a competitive team. Should they take a risk on a long-term project player, or use this choice to improve their short-term prospects?

Trading the pick is definitely an option. This will probably be attractive to Rafael Stone. Is this the right decision?

As always, it depends on the available supply. We recently dismissed an idea that the Rockets would sell the farm for Mikal Bridges. Still, something focused on moving the top pick for Bridges could be tenable.

For what it’s worth, this is seen as a weak project. This will negatively impact the value of a top pick in this draft. This could also impact Stone’s thinking. What are the chances that a student in this class would be as productive as Bridges?

Trading for Bridges (or a comparable player) isn’t the only option. Let’s assume Stone doesn’t see a gap between a player like Alexandre Sarr and a player like Kel’el Ware. The Rockets could trade way down in the draft, get their guy back, and grab some valuable future assets in the process.

Is this the decision?

This would be a defensible decision. That’s not what we would do.

With the first overall pick, we draft Sarr. His offense looks raw, but if he can operate like Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren and Evan Mobley on the defensive end, the Rockets will have a weapon similar to their future playoff rivals.

Can he play with Alperen Sengun? We’re not sure. If either can develop his three-point shot, Sarr could be exactly the type of weak-side shot blocker who alleviates Sengun’s limitations on the defensive end of the court.

Granted, that could rule out Jabari Smith Jr.. Don’t make the mistake of putting the cart before the horse. The Rockets should take the prospect with the most upside and figure out how the pieces fit together later.

This also applies if the pick lands below first. Zacharie Risacher should be able to play with anyone. There are concerns about his inconsistent shooting, but in theory he looks like the type of 3-and-D winger who can bring cohesion to any lineup.

Certainly, it is we who are now putting the cart before the horse.

After all, we know the Rockets should pick ninth. It’s probably much ado about nothing. Right now, it’s just fun to think about it.

There will be some intriguing prospects available regardless of where the Rockets select. There should also be some exciting deals on the table. The Rockets will have opportunities:

Let’s hope they don’t waste them on a Darko Milicic.