No big splash expected in NBA free agency

A year after the Rockets’ free-agent spending spree, another shopping season opens Sunday and Houston may not be part of it.

The Rockets are well over the salary cap but remain safely under the luxury tax line, giving them a $12.9 million mid-level exception they could offer in free agency. But with the selection of Reed Sheppard with the third pick on Wednesday, the trade for AJ Griffin on Thursday and the decision to keep players on non-guaranteed contracts on Saturday, the Rockets have 14 players under contract.

Including Steven Adams, the Rockets have 10 returning players who should be part of their rotation, not including Sheppard who could also earn playing time.

Unlike last season, when they signed Fred VanVleet to a three-year, $128.5 million contract and Dillon Brooks to a four-year, $86 million contract, there is no position departure pending free agent addition. There aren’t even save minutes available for most players considered in the mid-tier exception price range.

As the external free agent scouting period begins Sunday at 5 p.m., the Rockets have little motivation to use whatever salary they can offer on a player they are unlikely to play.

It can always be argued that adding depth is worth it, especially at a reasonable price. A player signed to a mid-tier contract can potentially be traded if he is unable to crack a spot in the rotation. But there is another potential use of the mid-level exception that could make the Rockets hesitant to use it in free agency.

The new collective agreement allows teams to use the mid-level exception in trades. This could be more helpful for the Rockets over the course of the season, and especially at the trade deadline, after seeing how some of their young players perform and which players who aren’t free agents this summer become available in the trades.

Aside from the fact that free agents generally aren’t eager to sign with a team that doesn’t have available playing time, there is another consideration to make as free agency begins.

Rockets guard Jalen Green and center Alperen Şengün are eligible for contract extensions, and Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason would be eligible for extensions next summer. The extensions for Green and Şengün would be worth up to $225 million over five seasons, though the Rockets are unlikely to offer the max to either player this offseason. Without an agreement on extensions, the players become restricted free agents after their fourth season.

With six rotation players, not including Sheppard, still on their rookie contracts, the Rockets’ salaries would skyrocket to the much more punitive first deck of $178.7 million next season or even the second deck of $189.5 million on second contracts for their core players.

With so many players not yet in their prime, the Rockets would still be building their team during these second contract years. But hitting those spending thresholds, especially if upcoming contracts push the Rockets toward the second apron, would significantly hamper many trade options.

The Rockets can stay below those thresholds even with extensions if they don’t reach the maximums allowed. But a long-term deal with a free agent — though the Rockets could structure that contract with non-guaranteed seasons — would put the Rockets closer to that line that teams will try to avoid.

Among the Rockets’ free agents with standard NBA contracts — Aaron Holiday, Reggie Bullock Jr., Boban Marjanović — Holiday is the most likely to return. With Sheppard in the mix, Holiday is expected to accept the kind of limited role expected when he signed last season when he played in 78 games.

After a solid season, Holiday could find greater playing opportunities elsewhere, but he would be a player the Rockets would like to bring back for the final roster spot.

Otherwise, the Rockets will likely keep it open throughout the season, making early July lacking in free-agent fireworks.