Best Bet: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Match Details

• Date: July 1, 2024
• Place: Rogers Center
• Starting pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown – Astros
  • Yariel Rodriguez – Blue Jays

Betting odds

Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Win Odds

The implied winning percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for bettors to assess the probability of an event happening based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected win percentage, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate made by ATS.io to determine the likelihood of a team winning a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Match Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Houston Astros on July 1, 2024, the two teams find themselves at different stages of the season. The Blue Jays, at 38-45, are having a below-average season, while the Astros, at 42-41, are around average. This is the first game of the series, and it is set to be played at Rogers Centre, an American League game that could provide some intriguing betting opportunities.

The Blue Jays are coming off a tough loss to the Yankees, where they lost 8-1 despite being slight favorites with a -110 moneyline. Meanwhile, the Astros are in top form after a 10-5 win over the Mets, a game in which they were slight underdogs with a +105 moneyline. This contrast in recent performances adds an interesting layer to the upcoming matchup.

Toronto will start Yariel Rodriguez. Rodriguez, a right-hander, has struggled this season with a 5.60 ERA and 0-2 record in six starts. His 4.91 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and could perform better going forward. However, his low strikeout rate (20.0%) and high walk rate (14.1%) are concerning, especially against an Astros offense that ranks first in batting average and fifth overall. Houston’s lineup, led by Jose Altuve (.304 ERA, .822 OPS), could exploit Rodriguez’s weaknesses.

On the other side, Houston will counter with Hunter Brown, also a right-hander. Brown has been solid this season, posting a 4.37 ERA and a 5-5 record in 15 starts. His xFIP of 3.54 indicates he’s been a bit unlucky as well, and his recent performance (6 scoreless innings with 7 strikeouts in his last start) shows he’s capable of dominating. The Blue Jays’ offense, which ranks 16th overall but struggles to generate power (27th in home runs), might struggle to generate runs against Brown.

The Blue Jays bullpen has been a weak spot, ranking 24th in the advanced power rankings, while the Astros bullpen is more reliable, ranking 15th. This disparity could play a crucial role in the final rounds.

THE BAT With the Blue Jays being +125 underdogs, it may be worth betting on them, especially if Rodriguez can surpass his season numbers and the bullpen holds up.

Quick takes on the Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown has used his slider 19% less often this year (6.1%) than last season (25.1%).

• Since sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who changes his pitch mix to use them less often may result in less success, especially if he uses his fastball more instead.

Toronto’s third-worst defense among all teams on the list creates a favorable matchup for Alex Bregman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player’s skills match well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which can lead to better than usual performances.

Yordan Alvarez is hitting a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% – 87th percentile) and is setting himself up very well considering he’ll be hitting to the 10th shallowest CF fences in baseball in today’s game.

• This player’s skillset fits particularly well with the park he’s in today, which can lead to better-than-usual performances.

Quick takes on the Toronto Blue Jays:

Over his previous 3 starts, Yariel Rodriguez has seen a significant drop in his fastball spin rate: from 2449 rpm all season to 2354 rpm as of late.

• Spin rate is a key component of fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see better results.

Danny Jansen is expected to bat 7th in the batting order today, which would be a drop from his 68% success rate in the top half of the batting order this season.

• The lower a player hits in the order, the fewer at-bat appearances he will have and the fewer opportunities he will have to hit the Over for each market. A player who hits lower in the order than usual may provide an opportunity for additional value since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays are projecting offensive profiles today that rank third among all teams in overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Gaming Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have reached the completed game total in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.85 units / 62% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have reached the under game total in 41 of their last 67 games (+14.65 units / 20% ROI)
• Danny Jansen hit RBI Under in his last 8 home games (+8.00 units / 47% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final score: Houston Astros 4.84 vs. Toronto Blue Jays 4.41

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