President of Somaliland: Controversial Ethiopia deal can prevent attacks in the Red Sea

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The controversial agreement that Somaliland signed with Ethiopia to lease a strip of land near the entrance to the Red Sea is intended, according to the president of the breakaway country, to help ensure “freedom of navigation” for international shipping, which is subject to attacks around this vital waterway.

Somaliland declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, but failed in its long-standing quest for global recognition. In January, the country signed the agreement that regulates access to areas on the Gulf of Aden in exchange for formal recognition by landlocked Ethiopia.

But Somalia vehemently rejects the agreement. The president declared that no one would give up “even one centimeter” of their territory.

Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi told the Financial Times that the agreement with Ethiopia would enable Somaliland to support international efforts to ensure freedom of navigation in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, where ships have been repeatedly attacked by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in recent months.

Ethiopia’s plan for the land around Berbera includes a port and a fleet that would help ward off maritime threats, he said. “Ethiopia will build a naval base and have merchant ships, and in return Ethiopia will recognize us – those are the basics,” said Bihi Abdi.

Bihi Abdi also said the agreement was an important step towards realizing his self-proclaimed country’s dream of complete independence. “The historic memorandum of understanding between Somaliland and Ethiopia will pave a clear path to international recognition,” he said from Hargeisa, the capital of the breakaway country.

Ethiopia has sought coastal access since its 1993 split from Eritrea, which left it landlocked. The country sees the Somaliland deal as a way to reduce its dependence on Djibouti for sea access, although the US, EU, Arab League and Egypt – which has a dispute with Ethiopia over a massive dam on the Blue Nile – have warned that the plan could escalate conflict in a region already plagued by terrorism and war.

A senior Ethiopian official involved in the Somaliland talks said he was “optimistic” that a final agreement would be reached, adding: “It is just a matter of Realpolitik and necessity.” Omar Mahmood, senior East Africa analyst at Crisis Group, said that while Ethiopia had faced significant “setbacks” in the deal, it did not want to “abandon it completely.”

China, Russia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are also seeking access to the Horn of Africa, a poor but strategically important region that includes Somalia and Djibouti. Somaliland has invested $300 million from Dubai-based DP World in Berbera and its wider economic zone. The country generates around 75 percent of Somaliland’s government revenue and is expected to transform the country into a regional trade hub. The United Arab Emirates controls the airport in Berbera and is in the process of setting up a naval base.

Hargeisa said international recognition could unlock further investment in its $3.4 billion economy, which is based on maritime trade, remittances and camel herding. The recognition was an “economic turning point,” Bihi Abdi said.

Next to the president’s office hangs a framed copy of the agreement Somaliland signed with Britain when the former protectorate gained independence in 1960. It then united with the former Italian colony of Somalia, only to secede in 1991 after a decade-long war of independence and the overthrow of Somali dictator Siad Barre.

Somaliland has recently struggled to contain violence in the east, where some local clan leaders have declared their intention to sever ties with Hargeisa and rejoin Somalia. But the breakaway country has brought relative stability to its 5.7 million people compared to Somalia, which descended into conflict and feuds between warlords after the fall of Barre and is battling a brutal Islamist insurgency with links to al-Qaeda.

Somaliland has its own army and elected parliament, prints its own currency and issues its own passports. Britain, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Ethiopia and Taiwan all have representation there. Despite this autonomy, Mogadishu considers it a full part of Somalia and Somaliland has not been officially recognised by any country.

Bihi Abdi, a former Somali military pilot turned rebel fighter who is running for re-election in November, insisted that the people of Somaliland would “support” the proposed agreement with Ethiopia, which is not legally binding, but the exact details were kept secret.

But the plan is facing resistance at home, including from Bihi Abdi’s own defense minister, who resigned in protest.

Some international capitals fear this could create a new rift in a region plagued by armed conflict, with Somalia already battling a long-running insurgency led by the jihadist group al-Shabaab and Ethiopia still reeling from a brutal and costly civil war in the Tigray region.

Washington, an ally of Mogadishu, expressed “concern” over the agreement, which “threatens to disrupt the fight” against Islamist militants. Bihi Abdi dismissed this claim as “unfounded.”

He also tried to downplay tensions with Somalia, saying war between the two was “impossible.” He also said the agreement could actually help “prevent” a potential conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by satisfying Addis Ababa’s need for access to the sea.

“We have been working for over 33 years towards international recognition of our independent status,” said Bihi Abdi. “We are ready.”