A Brief History of the Hawks in the NBA Draft Lottery

The Atlanta Hawks are looking to strike it rich tonight in the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery. With the 10th worst record in the league in 2023-24, the Hawks have exactly 3% odds at the first overall pick in the draft of the 2024 NBA. In addition, they will have a little less than 14% chance (or approximately 1 chance in 7) of winning a top 4 in the draft.

For a detailed explanation of the machinations of the NBA Draft Lottery, please see this article I wrote about the nerdy details of it all.

General manager Landry Fields will attend the lottery proceedings in New York (hopefully) as a representative of the lucky talisman the Hawks need tonight. On that note, let’s take a trip down memory lane to the Hawks’ NBA lottery history – a history that will span 40 years from today.

(Warning: Some of the resulting draft picks may not be suitable for delicate eyes)

The Equal Chance Lottery Era

1985: The Hawks and the six other teams in the lottery had an even 1-in-7 chance at the top pick — and for that matter in one of the seven available draft spots. Atlanta finished fifth and seized Jon Koncaka reserve center best known in infamy for a rather large contract he would sign four years later.

Increased Odds/Three Draw Era

1990 : The Hawks narrowly missed the playoffs in the 1989-90 season with a 41-41 record and therefore had a good chance of making the top 3 (a little over 5% in this format). They could not take advantage of these chances and landed at 11th drawing slot. On draft night, the Hawks traded future All-Star wing Tyrone Hill for point guard Rumeal Robinsonwho only spent two seasons in Atlanta.

1992: Atlanta narrowly missed the playoffs again and failed to advance with the 10th-the best lottery odds. Their consolation prize was the power forward Adam Keefe, another two-year player for the Hawks.

2000: A 28-54 record the previous season gave them the fifth-best odds at the No. 1 pick in this draft. Looking back, the only respite from poor lottery luck is that the Class of 2000 would arguably be the shallowest graduating class in history. Der Marr Johnson was the choice to sixbut the swingman suffered a serious car accident two years later, ultimately cutting his NBA career far too short.

2001: For the first time in franchise history, the Hawks were hit by Lady Luck. With a roughly 30% chance of finishing in the top 3 (equivalent to the previous year’s odds), Atlanta moved up to third. Hall of Famer Pau Gasol came here and was quickly traded to the Vancouver Grizzlies for a scoring-minded forward. Shareef Abdur-Rahim, an Atlanta-area native and current president of the NBA G League. I might want a rework on that one.

2004 : In this iteration, the Hawks went from sixth-best odds to the most likely spot: sixth in draft order. Josh Childress and his afro soon took up residence in Atlanta for four years before moving to Greece four years later.

2005: For the second time, the Hawks get a little bit of fortune in the lottery. Presenting the worst record in the league (13-69), they were unable to move beyond fourth place in the draft. With around a 47% chance of landing in the top 2, they clinched the top spot. second overall pick. The organization, however, passed up a certain hope of leader of Wake Forest for Marvin Williams, who still carved out a great career for himself. But to this day, Hawks fans are just left wondering “what if.”

2006: The recent streak of good luck reversed in 2006. Atlanta went from fourth-best rating to fifth drawing slot. It’s never good when you move on from a top 5 draft pick only a season and a half after selecting him, but that’s what happened Shelden Williams.

2007: The Hawks landed in the Top 3, this time with the fourth best odds (~38% to finish at least third). Franchise pillar and future four-time All-Star Al Horford was taken to the A with his own pick, starting a streak of 10 straight years in which the Hawks made the playoffs – logically pushing them out of the lottery with their own first-round pick.

Prior to the previous season, Atlanta had signed and traded Al Harrington, alongside John Edwards, to the Indiana Pacers in exchange for a first round draft pick (which I believe was unprotected). The Pacers finished with the 11th worst record in the league, but failed to advance in the lottery. The Hawks then selected Acie IV Law with the result 11th overall pick.

2018: A complete teardown in the post-Horford era led to the Hawks finishing with the fifth-worst record in 2017-18. That lottery and draft, however, defined the next era, with the Hawks landing the third overall pick, moving the fifth pick on draft night and getting a future top-5 protected first in the deal. All that rigamarole equals three times All-Star Trae Young and eventually, Reddish Cam.

Flattened odds/era of four lottery draws

2019: Atlanta entered the draft lottery with its own pick with the sixth-best odds and the aforementioned top-5 protected tied for the seventh-best odds. They left with choose no. 8 and no. ten. Ouch. De’Andre Hunter was acquired fourth overall via a draft night trade using a separate non-lottery first round pick.

2020: The final meaningful lottery night for the Hawks saw the Hawks move from fourth-best odds to sixth overall. This choice brought the current backup center Onyeka Okongwu.

Hopefully 2024 will provide Hawks fans with a much friendlier outcome than many lotteries before it.