It will warm again on Sunday before the storms return

Happy Saturday evening everyone. After some areas of fog this morning, we saw partly to mostly sunny skies throughout the day, with highs back in the low to mid 80s for many in the Ozarks. We’ll be warm again on Sunday before our next storm system moves in from the northwest, increasing our storm chances early next week.

Skies will be mostly clear this evening, with possibly some areas of fog again at sunrise south of I-44 in low-lying areas. Otherwise we will stay dry on Sunday and the sky will be mostly sunny. After starting with lows in the lower 60s, things will warm up again Sunday afternoon with highs mostly in the upper 80s. With dew points in the low to mid 60s, temperatures could reach what feels like 90° by late Sunday afternoon. This is something to keep in mind if you have any outdoor plans until then.

We will have some high clouds of storms moving into central and eastern Kansas Sunday evening. While these storms could be strong to severe out there, some of these showers or storms (with a rapidly weakening trend) could attempt to clip parts of the northern and western Ozarks in the early hours of Monday morning. After that, we’ll just wait for the chance of a few more isolated T-storms under partly sunny skies for the rest of your Monday.

After a mild start in the mid-60s Monday morning, we’ll stay warm again Monday afternoon, with highs back in the upper 80s for most of us.

While the chances of showers and T-storms appear quite low for Monday, those chances will certainly increase for our First Alert Weather Day on Tuesday. We have a level 2 to 3 severe weather risk for late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. As for the details, I think the timing for the strongest storms appears to be consistent between 4 a.m. Tuesday afternoon and 1 a.m. early Wednesday morning. While all severe weather risks appear possible, I think the threats will be strong wind gusts followed by large hail and a few isolated tornadoes.

In terms of how Tuesday’s storms may develop, we will enjoy a calm start to the day before upper level lows begin to move northwest. By 4 p.m. Tuesday afternoon, we expect either isolated storms or a line of storms to develop along or ahead of our incoming cold front. They could cut off our far western and northwestern counties by late Tuesday afternoon. As the evening progresses we will see these T-Storms work southeast across the Ozarks with severe weather expected. Although the storms may continue through midnight and 1 a.m. Wednesday morning, we expect the severe threat to subside by then.

Following our first day of alert on Tuesday, there is a risk of further rainfall and thunderstorms almost every day for the rest of the week. If these chances hold, the Ozarks could see rainfall amounts between 0.75″ and 3″ by next Saturday evening. Still, temperatures will remain above normal for most of next week.

After highs in the upper 80s ahead of the cold front on Tuesday, we’ll briefly fall back into the lower 70s on Wednesday afternoon. The chance of additional T-storms on Wednesday is expected to be scattered and limited to areas along and south of the Missouri/Arkansas state line. Scattered squalls will increase again in the southern Ozarks on Thursday. This will be followed by a few isolated T-storms early Friday morning and more isolated T-storms through next Saturday.

Although there is a chance of rain, we will see a trend of high temperatures into the mid 70s next Thursday, with lower 80s on the way to start our Memorial Day weekend on Friday and Saturday. Over the next seven days, I think we will see more T-storm chances after Sunday and Memorial Day-Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Given that we can’t get through a Memorial Day weekend without pursuing the chance of a T-Storm, this tradition should continue this year. The Tuesday after Memorial Day should be dry and partly sunny, with highs falling back into the lower 80s.

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