First Severe Geomagnetic Storm Watch since 2005 • Earth.com

Solar activity has reached high levels over the past 24 to 36 hours, with a background flux at or near M1.0. The most significant developments from the Sun include the growth and merger of regions 3664 and 3668, as well as the production of numerous M-class solar flares and two X-class solar flares from CMEs that are expected to arrive on Earth this weekend.

Region 3664 dominates solar activity with three CMEs

Region 3664, now combined with Region 3668, has grown to over 1,500 miles in size. This region was the main source of solar activity, producing many M-class flares and two X-class flares.

Associated with this activity were three halocoronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are expected to arrive on Earth between late 10 and early 11 May 2024.

A fourth halo CME associated with the X2.2/3B flare is visible in STEREO images, but has yet to be fully analyzed due to pending updates to LASCO coronagraph images.

Sunspot region 3663 shows signs of decay

Region 3663, approaching the western edge, has shown signs of decay and appears to be losing its delta configuration.

Despite this, the region continued to produce optical flares, radio bursts, and an isolated M-class flare. Other discovered active regions remained stable and inactive.

Solar filament eruption and CME

In addition to activity in regions 3664 and 3663, a 35° long filament erupted near E27N18. This outbreak was accompanied by a CME that moved primarily in a northeast direction.

The analysis suggests a possible Earth-directed component with similar timing to the halo CMEs mentioned above.

Forecast: High to very high solar activity expected

Solar activity is expected to continue at high to very high levels from May 9th to 11th. M-class (R1-R2/Low-Medium) eruptions are expected and X-class (R3/Strong) eruptions are likely due to the ongoing eruption potential of regions 3663 and 3664.

Energetic particle activity and prediction

Electron and proton flux levels

Electron flux greater than 2 MeV remained at normal to moderate levels, while proton flux greater than 10 MeV remained constant at background levels.

Forecast: Potential for a light proton flux storm

Electron flow of more than 2 MeV is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels from May 9 to 11, 2024.

Due to the flare potential of regions 3663 and 3664, there is a possibility that the proton flux of more than 10 MeV could reach the S1 (Minor) storm level during this period.

Solar wind conditions and forecast

Conditions near the background with increased solar wind speeds

The solar wind environment reflected near-background conditions, with slightly increased solar wind speeds likely due to the residual influence of the coronal hole high-velocity stream (CH HSS).

The total field strength remained constant at about 3 nT, the Bz component had no significant southward deflections, phi maintained a positive orientation, and solar wind speeds averaged about 470 km/s.

Forecast: Improvements expected from CME arrivals

Strengthening of the solar wind environment is likely on May 9th following the expected grazing effects of a CME that exited the Sun on May 6th. Stronger improvements are expected late on May 10 and into May 11, as the two CMEs that left the Sun on May 8 are expected to arrive at Earth.

Geomagnetic activity and forecast

Calm earth magnetic field

The Earth’s magnetic field remained at a calm level over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: Unstable to strong geomagnetic storm conditions

During the mid to late day of May 9, unsettled to active conditions are possible as a temporary impact May 6th CME have an impact on the earth.

The arrival of the two halo CMEs from May 8 through the end of May 10 is expected to strengthen the geomagnetic response to the G1 (Minor) storm.

Conditions will likely reach G3 (strong) or G4 (severe) storm strengths early on May 11 as the majority of the four CMEs pass Earth.

While confidence in the timing is fairly high, confidence in the magnitude and strength of the geomagnetic response to the CME arrival is low to moderate.

For an explanation of the NOAA weather scales, see this table.

Possible effects

The impact area is mainly poleward of the 50th degree of geomagnetic latitude. Possible effects are:

• Induced currents: Irregularities in the mains voltage and false alarms in some protection devices.
• spacecraft: Surface charging and increased drag in low Earth orbit satellites, potentially causing orientation problems.
• navigation: Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) issues, including loss of lock and increased range error.
• radio: Intermittent HF (radio frequency) radio communication.
• Aurora: Northern lights can be seen as far south as Iowa in the Midwest and as far north as Oregon in the northwest.

Earth is preparing for the impact of another solar storm

In summary, Earth is preparing for the potential impact of incoming CMEs as the Sun continues to demonstrate its immense power through high solar activity.

While the timing of these events remains fairly certain, the extent of their impact on our planet’s geomagnetic field is still a matter of speculation.

Regardless of the outcome, this period of increased solar activity serves as a reminder of the complex relationship between our star and the technology we rely on every day.

As we monitor developments in the coming days, it is critical to remain vigilant and prepared for any challenges that may arise from this cosmic dance between the Sun and Earth.

Stay tuned to Earth.com and NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for updates.

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