New militant attacks cast shadow over parliamentary elections in Jammu and Kashmir

An increase in militant attacks in Jammu and Kashmir is casting a shadow over the upcoming parliamentary elections in the region as well as the Amarnath Yatra.

The Supreme Court has directed the Union government to hold assembly elections in the region before September this year. The Amarnath Yatra, an annual pilgrimage to a cave shrine in Kashmir, is scheduled to begin on June 29 and end on August 19. Both events are large and require heavy security. Terrorist attacks at this time could divert security forces from the elections and the yatra. The central government has reportedly deployed an additional 500 companies (approximately 50,000 personnel) of the Central Armed Police Forces in the region as Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans to visit Srinagar on International Yoga Day on June 21.

In 2019, the state of Jammu and Kashmir was stripped of its special constitutional status and divided into two centrally administered Union Territories (UTs). The recently concluded Lok Sabha election was the first election since then and recorded the highest voter turnout in 35 years.

“The combined voter turnout at polling stations across the Union Territory (5 Lok Sabha seats) was 58.46 percent in the 2024 general elections,” the Election Commission of India said, calling the overwhelming voter turnout, particularly in the Kashmir Valley, a “major step forward” for India’s electoral politics. “This active participation is a great advantage for the soon-to-be-held general elections so that the democratic process in the Union Territory can continue to flourish,” the commission said in a press release.

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The Amarnath Yatra, a major pilgrimage for many Hindus, has not been conducted regularly since 2018. Safety and weather concerns led to the Yatra being either cancelled altogether in some years or abruptly ended in others. And of course, the Yatra was not possible during the COVID-19 years. This year, it could have resumed.

Terrorist attacks in peaceful areas

An hour before Narendra Modi was sworn in as Prime Minister for the third consecutive term on June 9, at least seven pilgrims from Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, including a two-year-old child, were killed when the bus they were travelling in was ambushed by militants. The militants fired at the bus, the driver was killed and the bus plunged into a ravine. The militants continued firing even after the bus crashed. This happened in Reasi district, a region that has been peaceful for the past 15 years.

In the 48 hours following that attack, at least two militants and a Central Reserve Police Force soldier were killed and seven security personnel injured in three separate clashes in Kathua and Doda districts. While troops continue their search operations, a police spokesman said at least 50 people have been arrested in connection with the investigation into the Reasi attack.

Locals in Reasi and other areas have complained of harassment by security forces. “The reports from Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal where ordinary people are being harassed, detained and arrested are deeply disturbing. This must be stopped immediately,” a National Conference (NC) spokesperson said in a statement. Chenab Valley includes Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban districts, while Pir Panjal region includes the border districts of Rajouri and Poonch in Jammu division.

A series of terrorist events

There have been several infiltration attempts from across the border with Pakistan in recent months. In an apparent case of mistaken identity, a 28-year-old cook employed by a construction company and working at a border post in Samba district was shot dead by the Border Guard Force on June 7. Three local residents had died in army custody; they had been brought in for questioning after militants ambushed two army vehicles in December 2023, killing four soldiers and injuring three others.

Even during the Lok Sabha elections, terrorists had attacked an Indian Air Force convoy, killing a corporal and wounding four soldiers. Earlier in April, a 40-year-old man was killed by unidentified gunmen in Rajouri district and a non-local taxi driver was shot at in Kashmir’s Shopian district. Meanwhile, a member of the Village Defence Guards, a group of armed civilians tasked with fighting militants, was killed in a gunfight with militants in Jammu’s Udhampur district.

Following the recent series of terror attacks, several anti-Pakistan protests broke out in the socially sensitive Jammu region. Naturally, political parties were quick to react. The Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and the NC urged the BJP-led NDA government to start a dialogue with Pakistan. “We have problems with our neighbours. These problems will not be solved by military action. The terrorists are sneaking in from across the border and will continue to do so,” said NC chairman and former chief minister Farooq Abdullah. Abdullah fears that terrorists may target the upcoming Amarnath Yatra, adding, “Any small incident that might take place will be blown up in the rest of the country. We Kashmiris have never advocated such things.”

Prime Minister Modi has instructed the authorities to deploy the “full spectrum of anti-terror capabilities” in Jammu and Kashmir. Ravinder Raina, chairman of the BJP’s Jammu and Kashmir unit, sharply criticised Abdullah’s call for dialogue. “He should stop advocating for Pakistan because there can be no talks with a hostile state that is a rogue state and is hell-bent on destroying peace and prosperity in Jammu and Kashmir,” Raina said. Frontline“The BJP firmly believes in the policy of putting the nation first and our government would respond to Pakistan only in the language it understands.”

Has the repeal increased militancy?

Despite the ruling BJP’s tough stance, questions are being raised as to whether the abrogation of the erstwhile state’s semi-autonomous status has any connection with the security problems on the ground. On June 14, the PDP held a protest demonstration in Jammu to condemn the recent terror attacks. The party demanded an explanation from the Modi government on the “disturbing” security conditions, which contradict the government’s claims that peace has been restored in the Union Territory after the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35(A).

The Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party (Bhim) has blamed Pakistan for the recent targeted attacks in the region after the Lok Sabha elections were successfully conducted here. “The UT government has left the party leaders at the mercy of God and failed to provide security to our leaders despite increasing terror activities,” said Vilakshan Singh, the party’s president Frontline.

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Former army chief General VP Malik has proposed postponing the upcoming general election by a year. “Do not rush to hold elections in Jammu and Kashmir by September. Focus on consolidating gains in Kashmir. A few terrorist successes in Jammu could spur more terrorism in the valley,” he said in a television interview. “More important than holding general elections by September is ensuring security in Jammu and Kashmir. Postpone the election by a year.”

The NC reacted sharply to General Malik’s statement. Former Prime Minister Omar Abdullah warned against giving in to the threats. “Yes, please give in to these extremist forces so that they can have a sense of achievement. You have gained nothing in Kashmir if militant groups can jeopardise the elections that the Prime Minister, His Majesty and the Election Commission want to hold before the SC deadline of September 30,” he wrote on X.

Unlike in previous elections, the BJP did not contest any of the three Lok Sabha seats in the Kashmir valley in the recent election. While the saffron party retained both seats in Jammu province, it lost Ladakh to an independent candidate, Mohmad Haneefa Jan.