Atlanta Braves trade scenarios: Jim Bowden weighs 4 proposals to address key needs

The top three starters in the Atlanta Braves’ rotation were among the best in baseball throughout the first half of the season, and the team’s high-powered offense reawakened after a widespread slump that lasted over 40 games and was the main reason they fell as much as 10 1/2 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East.

But even though the Braves cut a few games ahead of Philly and feel good about their chances every time Max Fried, Chris Sale or Reynaldo López start, they have a few holes in their lineup and a steep decline at rear of the rotation. . They need to address two areas before the trade deadline: corner outfielder and starting pitcher.

Outfielder Adam Duvall and shortstop Orlando Arcia have struggled to hit all season, especially lately, as Duvall hit .124 over the last 30 days before Thursday and Arcia hit .129, and they trail the two worst OPS of any qualified player during that span – Duvall .359 and Arcia .397. Ouch.

The Braves are ready to lean on Arcia because of his strong defense and the energy he brings to the dugout and locker room. They have a decent backup (Zack Short) and a top prospect at shortstop (Nacho Alvarez Jr.) who is impressing in Triple-A.

But the corner outfield is another matter. Duvall was drafted into the squad with Jarred Kelenic in left field, but after right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a knee injury in late May and a recent hamstring strain, center fielder Michael Harris II was benched. sidelined indefinitely, the Braves began playing Kelenic and Duvall every day with Forrest Wall or Ramón Laureano of the Cleveland Guardians.

Kelenic has thrived in center and leadoff in Harris’ absence, but Duvall’s slump has gotten worse with exposure to right-handed pitchers: He was 9 for 97 (.093) with 37 strikeouts against righties through Thursday, with a .242 OPS against them that was the worst in the major leagues among hitters with 30-plus at-bats against righties.

The Braves can live with Charlie Morton’s inconsistency at the fourth spot in the rotation, but they need to add a starting pitcher, even with Ian Anderson expected to return from Tommy John surgery shortly after the All-Star break. They can’t count on the prospects and other players they used at the back of the rotation, nor on Anderson, after the right-hander missed a season and a half. They also know that as great as Sale and López have been, Sale hasn’t stayed healthy for a full season since 2019, and López has already thrown more innings (79 1/3) than in n any season since 2019, its last full season as a starter.

With these needs in mind, here are some business proposals I’ve come up with, with thoughts on each from our resident expert, former MLB General Manager Jim Bowden. — David O’Brien

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The Braves would add another big hitter to their roster with Rooker, who has 30 homers, a .488 slugging percentage and a 128 OPS+ in 2023, and has been even better this season with 14 home runs. 506 slugging and an OPS+ of 145 through Wednesday, although he has a total of 97 strikeouts, which is best in the American League. He would make Atlanta better now, and with three more years of contract control, he would provide insurance if Acuña has problems in 2025 when he returns from ACL surgery, as he did in 2022 when he returns from his first ACL surgery. And if the Braves decide not to option designated hitter Marcell Ozuna’s contract for 2025 or extend it beyond that, Rooker is an experienced designated hitter.

The Braves would give up a top pitching prospect in Kuehler, a second-round pick in the 2023 draft who has a 2.21 ERA in his first 13 minor league starts (all in Low-A), and a top-10 organizational prospect in Guanipa, an 18-year-old burner who signed for $2.5 million last year out of Venezuela and projects as an MLB center fielder. Exposito, 23, caught the eye with a career-best season so far at High-A Rome, batting .286 with 11 homers, 22 stolen bases and an .858 OPS.

Bow: Oakland should jump into this deal and call a news conference even before A’s general manager David Forst gets off the phone with Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos. If the A’s could get Kuehler straight for Rooker, I think this proposed trade is a win for them, but also getting Guanipa makes it a no-brainer. Remove Exposito from the deal; Oakland doesn’t even need him in this proposition to make a deal.

For the Braves, it will feel like déjà vu from three years ago, when they acquired Jorge Soler from Kansas City at the trade deadline. Rooker will add a lot more power to their lineup and while I don’t like the 29-year-old defensively, Atlanta has Duvall to play their defense late in games. The Braves are so good defensively that they can have a subpar defender in the outfield and still win. Rooker could help them advance in the playoffs by lengthening their roster, but I actually like the Oakland side of this trade proposition a lot more than the Atlanta side, especially in the long term.

White Sox sign left-handed pitcher Riley Frey

Pham has big-game credentials and remains a professional hitter at age 36, as evidenced by his .345 OBP and 109 OPS+ in 45 games before Thursday. He can bring the coveted and elusive “edge” to a team that’s hard to define but players know when it’s coming. A big plus for Atlanta: He’s on a low-cost, one-year deal, so it won’t be too big an expense, prospects or salary-wise, to sign him as a rental player. Pham hit .313 with six homers and a .846 OPS in 31 playoff games. That included 16 hits in 14 games over Arizona’s final three 2023 postseasons, with a home run in each of them, including the World Series.

Frey, a lefty with a funky swing from a low-arm slot, has impressed since the Braves selected him in the 19th round of the 2023 draft out of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. He has a 1.82 ERA in 12 games (eight starts) at two Class A levels this season, with 46 strikeouts and 15 walks in 59 1/3 innings.

Bowden: A fair deal for both sides and the idea works for both teams. Pham has been traded at the trade deadline each of the last two years, so he might as well make it three in a row. He has brought a unique side to every club he has played for and is a winning player. He is at the end of his career, but he can still hit with power and steal bases. I like the fit and price of the prospect for Atlanta. From the White Sox perspective, they should trade Pham to open the door for their young players to develop.

White Sox get: Right-handed pitcher Garrett Baumann and right-handed pitcher Mario Baez

After a year in the KBO, Erick Fedde returned to the major leagues and had the best year of his career. (Lon Horwedel/USA Today)

Fedde successfully completed his first season in the majors after a year in South Korea. The 31-year-old finished seventh in MLB in innings (100 1/3) and 14th in the AL with a 3.23 ERA after starting Wednesday against the Dodgers. He’s signed through 2025 and has a $7.5 million salary next year, and Fedde would provide some security heading into the offseason with Max Fried eligible for free agency, Charlie Morton mulling the retirement and Spencer Strider returning from elbow surgery and his status uncertain. for the first part of the 2025 season.

Baumann, a 6-foot-8 right-hander selected in the fourth round of the 2023 draft out of Hagerty High near Orlando, has a 3.20 ERA in 12 starts in Low A with 44 strikeouts and 13 walks in 59 innings. Baez is a 17-year-old shortstop prospect with exceptional speed, a stronger arm and a good glove. He hit in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut last summer but struggled with the bat in the Florida Complex League. He is one of several shortstops among the Braves’ top 30 prospects.

Bow: I agree that the Braves really need an additional veteran starter – not because I don’t think one of their young starters will step up and take the fifth spot in the rotation, but because I think the Braves need to guard against injuries to their veteran starters. in the second half of the season. Fedde is a solid mid-rotation starter who has figured it out and provides bulldog-style innings that will be crucial in August and September. However, if I’m the White Sox, I’m hoping to get a better prospect in the deal given Fedde’s extra year of control. Therefore, start the conversation with Kuehler and finish it with Baumann and Baez, and then we can write the press release.

Rays get: RHP Garrett Baumann, OF Luis Guanipa

If the Rays decide to trade him, there’s a lot to like about Eflin, starting with 63 strikeouts and just six walks in 81 1/3 innings, the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors. While his strikeout rate is significantly lower than it was in his best seven years with the Phillies through 2022, so is his walk rate, a majors-leading 0.7 per nine innings. Eflin has a modest 4.20 ERA in 14 starts but has averaged nearly six innings per outing and would be a great fit in the back of Atlanta’s rotation. He’s signed through 2025, a plus for a team that could lose starters Fried and Morton to free agency and retirement, respectively. Eflin’s three-year, $40 million deal calls for an $18 million salary in 2025 — a bit higher than ideal, but $2 million less than what the Braves have paid Morton in each of the last three seasons. If the Rays can move all of that salary, it could also reduce the return cost of a trade.

Bow: If I were the Braves, while I would love to add Eflin to the rotation, I don’t like the $18 million salary in 2025 because of the financial exposure already laid out for the rest of my roster. So unless the Rays are willing to eat some of the salary, which is unlikely because other teams would surely absorb the entire amount in a trade, I would probably focus more on a trade with the White Sox to acquire Fedde, who is much more affordable at $7.5 million in 2025.

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(Top photo by Brent Rooker: Godofredo A. Vásquez/Associated Press)