Houston Rockets 2024 NBA Offseason Preview: There Are Choices to Make

2023-24 season: 41-41

Highlight of the season: The Rockets’ highlight might be the same as their biggest concern: Jalen Green’s play after Alperen Şengün went down with a season-ending injury. Green averaged 24.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists in the team’s last 18 games.

How it ended

After signing Fred VanVleet to a monster contract last summer, the Rockets did what they always thought they would do: they accelerated their rebuild. They were aided by another veteran acquisition, forward Dillon Brooks, as the two elder statesmen helped push the team to a .500 record.

However, it was mainly thanks to Şengün that Houston looked like a more competitive team. Under new head coach Ime Udoka, Şengün was given the green light to make decisions on his own, rather than playing off guard, which had been the case in the previous two seasons. Sengün responded by looking like a future max caliber player, averaging 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5 assists in 32.5 minutes per game.

Unfortunately for Houston, they once again failed to receive quality production from Jabari Smith Jr., last year’s No. 3 overall selection, who had a rookie season incoherent but which should change things. Despite having every chance to do so – starting 76 games and playing over 2,400 minutes – Smith has made only modest improvements and looks like a slow-burn type of project for the Rockets.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether Houston is actually interested in pursuing this project. During the trade deadline, the Rockets reportedly went after Nets star Mikal Bridges, hoping to further speed up their process. As they enter the 2024 offseason, logic dictates that the organization will once again study the market for ways to cash in their chips, whether it’s draft picks or young players.

This situation has caused a lot of uncertainty over the franchise. The fanbase finds itself in a strange emotional state, with one side celebrating the franchise’s improved play and the other being nervous about seeing their young players potentially moved out of town.

The overarching question for the Rockets is pretty simple: If they want to go all-in, especially in a very competitive Western Conference, do they have enough upside to make a legitimate upgrade that will propel them near the top of the standings?

The biggest need out of season

Assuming the Rockets want to go all-in, which is a reasonable assumption at this point, they definitely need a superstar. If the team wants to potentially move away from Green or Şengün – maybe even both – they will need to acquire the services of a true superstar who can lead them into the depths of the playoffs to justify their decision.

Projected Draft Picks (Pre-Lottery)

No. 9, 44

The Rockets own Brooklyn’s unprotected 2024 selection, via the James Harden trade, but do not have two lottery picks for the simple reason that the Oklahoma City Thunder own his selection if he is not among the first four. However, if the Rockets win the lottery, they will keep their own selection, as well as Brooklyn’s.

Development project

Houston has a very athletic backcourt with VanVleet, Green, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore. The Rockets could look to target some size and versatility in the lottery with UConn’s Donoan Clingan, Colorado’s Cody Williams or Baylor’s Yves Missi. -Krysten Peek

Salary Cap Breakdown

Despite having to pay VanVleet nearly $43 million next season, the Rockets have clean sheets for 2024-25. They have team options on Jeff Green and Jae’Sean Tate, and by declining them — and waiving Jock Landale before June 29 — they can get under the cap by around $18 million to $20 million, meanwhile empty list fees.

If Houston is serious about trading for stars, this space could prove useful in helping teams shed more salary on any trade return. This also makes it much easier to match salaries. If the worst happens and they go after a star, the team can enter free agency with some money in their pocket and look for a smaller upgrade.

Key free agents

None

Next season’s goal

It all depends on the management. If the Rockets acquire, say, Bridges, expectations will rise to the point where they will have to make the playoffs and have some level of success there. If they instead keep their young players and continue to build around them, just making the playoffs will be considered a victory.

What can move the fantasy needle

Thompson becomes a shooting threat. He shot 14% from 3-point range and less than 32% from beyond 10 feet. It certainly won’t help maintain an honest defense or maximize his playing time. He’s a high-level athlete and is developing into one of the best young defenders in the league. It has such a high fantastic ceiling; any improvement in his shooting will help both the Rockets and Fantasy managers.

Green also has a big season ahead of him after closing out 2023-2024 in excellent fashion. When evaluating his performance from year to year, he continually starts slow and comes into play after the All-Star break. Green’s late-season surge can’t be another flash in the pan; it must be constant throughout a season. If Green can pull this off, the Rockets could be a playoff team, and he’ll finally live up to his mid-round ADP in fantasy drafts. —Dan Titus