A Braves-Cardinals trade to fill the hole in Atlanta’s rotation

With the way we’ve been talking about the Atlanta Braves lately, you’d think they’d be the St. Louis Cardinals, a team with upgraded expectations that has absolutely fallen flat. But as of Saturday, the Braves’ struggles boiled down to being firmly still in playoff contention and being 11 games above .500 for the year.

That doesn’t mean the Braves can be complacent going forward, however. The biggest help for the Braves would be for fading stars like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson to snap out of it and return to their MVP-caliber form. However, with Spencer Strider out for the rest of the season, Atlanta’s rotation has been comprised of four good starts and then a question mark.

Max Fried has returned to dominant form, Charlie Morton is as strong as ever, Reynaldo Lopez has been a stud as he stretches to become a starter and Chris Sale has turned back the clock. The fifth role without Strider is a question mark, however. Bryce Elder has been nothing like his 2023 All-Star form while guys like Darius Vines and Allan Winans have been inconsistent at best.

That’s where the aforementioned Cardinals could come in. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak made an aggressive effort to improve St. Louis’ pitchers this offseason, including signing right-handed ace Sonny Gray in free agency . That hasn’t resulted in a turnaround from their dismal 71-91 campaign a year ago, however, entering Saturday at 15-23 on the year.

What if the Braves go after Sonny Gray in a trade? To get the right deal, which we’ll try to offer here, the Cardinals may have to bite down and accept the trade.

We have a bit of a framework from the Mets last year to deal Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer before the trade deadline in which they took on part of the salary in order to get a better return from the Astros and the Rangers, respectively. So in this hypothetical trade package, I would expect the same from the Cardinals.

To complete this deal, the Cardinals take $10 million of Gray’s salary for 2025 and 2026 while leaving the Braves responsible for the rest of his salary for 2024, which is reduced from the last two years of the deal. Gray’s club option for 2027 remains entirely with the Braves.

As we know, the Braves are nowhere near the top of MLB’s best farm systems, so they’re going to have to shell out for AJ Smith-Shawver if they want to entice the Cardinals to move Gray. And actually, this trade could work perfectly for St. Louis given their needs.

Mozeliak, as mentioned, made pitching a priority in free agency this past offseason, which is why they went for Gray. But the truth is, the future of the Cardinals rotation remains in flux. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson aren’t spring chickens, Miles Mikolas has a little more gray hair than you might think, and Steven Matz almost certainly isn’t in the future. There are certainly questions, and questions that might arise sooner or later.

Smith-Shawver and Vines could potentially be answers to that at ages 21 and 26 respectively, having already gained some major league experience. Smith-Shawver quickly progressed through the Braves system last year and made six appearances in Atlanta last season with a 4.26 ERA and 1.11 WHIP as a 20-year-old. Vines, meanwhile, has a 4.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP across seven MLB appearances across the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

At this point, though, investing in the future should be the Cardinals’ goal, as their current construction simply isn’t producing winning baseball. Meanwhile, the Braves contrast that, a win-now team that could extend part of this current window before Max Fried potentially leaves free agency in 2025 and before Charlie Morton likely retires during the next offseason. And of course, this helps replace the injured Strider in the immediate future.

Giving up a top prospect and viable arm isn’t something the Braves should take lightly, but for a dominant right-hander like Gray who would still be in the organization for two more years — and who could come to a reduced rate for the 2024 season, it should be worth it.