Rainy forecast calls for worst storms south of Houston

Houstonians can expect a soggy week, with forecasters predicting heavy rain and the possibility of localized street flooding, although the worst storms are expected to hit the south of the city.

A tropical storm or tropical depression is expected to form midweek in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, before moving west into Mexico and southern Texas, according to the National Weather Service. The system could produce moderate flooding along the Texas coast.

Locally, rain is expected to begin Tuesday, spread through Wednesday, then clear out Thursday, according to Matt Lanza, meteorologist and editor-in-chief of Space City Weather. The entire region will receive rain, with the worst expected south of Houston.

“Right now, we think the heavier rain line is going to be south of Houston and potentially more around Corpus Christi,” Lanza said. “We are cautiously optimistic that the worst will remain in south Houston, such as Galveston and Brazoria counties, but that said, there is still a lot of uncertainty.”

Still, he said, localized street flooding remains a major concern in parts of Houston south of Interstate 10.

Typically, a single storm can vary greatly in precipitation, according to Lanza. There are some locations that will receive one to three inches of rain, which is manageable, but other locations may see 4 to 8 inches of rain. A difference of just a few centimeters can have a big impact.

This week, the humidity in the atmosphere is the highest the region will experience in June, Lanza said. The situation is made worse by warm Gulf Coast waters, which have reached nearly 90 degrees in recent weeks. The hot water evaporates into the atmosphere, causing additional moisture to build up.

Mark Sloan, Harris County’s homeland security and emergency management coordinator, said county officials are closely monitoring the system and are in “constant communication” with local partners and meteorologists. However, he does not expect catastrophic damage.

At a meeting of city officials at the Houston Office of Emergency Management on Monday, Mayor John Whitmire asked residents to prepare for this week’s rains, but said he wanted to avoid unnecessary anxiety over the rains to come.

“We learned from the derecho that you always have to be prepared,” Whitmire said, citing last month’s storm that left 900,000 people without power for days as high winds gusting 65 to 70 mph devastated Houston .

The city’s Department of Public Works continues to remove debris left behind by the May derecho, but is prioritizing ditches, culverts and other drainage infrastructure to allow stormwater to flow, Whitmire said.

Reporters Paul Cobler and McKenna Oxenden contributed to this story.

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