National Dialogue in Ethiopia: Path to Reconciliation or ‘Dead on Arrival’?

Last month, a phase of “agenda gathering” began in Addis Ababa, allowing each region to raise issues it would like to have addressed.

Mohamoud Dirir, one of 11 members of Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Commission appointed in early 2022, described the exercise as “crucial” for the country of 120 million people.

“It is time for a genuine dialogue that leaves no social group, no political party, no armed group and no other actor out.”

Although the brutal two-year war in Tigray ended 19 months ago, the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed – a Nobel Peace Prize winner – is struggling to quell the insurgencies in the two largest regions, Oromia and Amhara.

Ethiopia, a mosaic of more than 80 ethno-linguistic communities, has experienced numerous conflicts over identity and territorial claims in recent years.

According to ENDC, 16 political parties, including Abiy’s Prosperity Party, which holds 90 percent of seats in parliament, attended the meetings in Addis Ababa, along with representatives of the government, civil society and various prominent figures.

However, the opposition largely opposed the process and it was unclear whether the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which fought federal troops for two years until a peace agreement in November 2022, would join the process.

“The crucial ingredients for a successful national dialogue are missing,” said Merera Gudina, chair of the Caucus of Opposition Parties (CoP).

He described the consultations as “doomed to failure from the start” because they were neither inclusive, impartial nor independent, but represented “a game controlled by one party”.

Abiy said he was ready to accept proposals emerging from the dialogue, but rejected a key opposition demand – that of an inclusive transitional government.

“Elections will be the only means to bring a government to power,” Abiy told delegates.

Ezekiel Gebissa, professor of history and African studies at Kettering University in the US, said that by preemptively excluding options, the process seems designed to “produce predetermined outcomes”.

He also said that “the guns must fall silent” in the conflict areas if the dialogue is to have any chance of success.

“It is simply inconceivable that people in the midst of war can have a serious, free and transparent conversation.”

Other necessary conditions, he said, were the return of people displaced by the fighting to their homes, the release of political prisoners and the expulsion of foreign forces, including Eritrean troops, from Ethiopian soil.

Oromia, Ethiopia’s most populous region, has been in the grip of an insurgency by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which is classified as a terrorist organization by the federal government, since 2018.

In Amhara, the Fano militia – which fought alongside federal troops in the Tigray war – took up arms last year after the government decided to disarm all regional forces.

Merera warned that in the absence of important actors, such as those from Amhara and Oromia, the dialogue could even contribute to “exacerbating political crises”.

Lemi Gemechu, spokesman for the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), which renounced armed struggle when Abiy came to power in 2018, leading to the split from the OLA, said the process would not be credible without armed groups.

“As it stands, this flawed process will never lead to lasting peace or democratic governance.”

“It can only serve as a public relations measure to deceive the Ethiopian people on the one hand and to ensure the inflow of much-needed foreign currency by deceiving the international community on the other.”

The government is currently in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to launch a financial support program.

Ethiopia is struggling with a huge foreign debt of around 28 billion US dollars, inflation of over 23 percent, a currency that has been declining for years and an ongoing humanitarian crisis in the north.

ENDC Commissioner Mohamoud insisted that all interested parties had been invited and pointed out that conflicts in other parts of the world could only be resolved through dialogue with armed groups, such as the IRA in Northern Ireland and the FARC in Colombia.

“But it requires the political will of all competing forces … the government and those who have a reason to take up arms against the government.”

The opposition party Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (Ezema), which is also part of the government, said it encouraged all parties to give dialogue a chance.

“We expect a revision of the constitution and a free and fair political space as a result of the ongoing national dialogue,” Eyob Mesafint, a member of Ezema’s executive committee, told AFP.

The ENDC says the process will continue in the region’s 12 states and in diaspora communities, but does not provide a timeframe.

“People expect a real dialogue process that addresses the fundamental problems,” said teacher Mengistu Kebede from Addis Ababa.

“(The government) should give priority to the suffering of the people over the maintenance of political power.”

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