Ukraine continues to lose valuable jets at the same vulnerable air base

The Ukrainian Air Force’s Dolgintsevo airbase is one of the most vulnerable bases in Ukraine. It is located near Kryvyi Rih, just 72 kilometers from the front line in southern Ukraine, and is within range of Russia’s best Lancet drones.

Since the longer-range version of the Lancet – the so-called “Product 53” – was introduced in August, the drones have been attacking Dolgintseve every few weeks, targeting any fighter jets parked outdoors on the base’s runways.

In nine months, Lancets have hit at least four fighter jets in Dolgintsevo: two Mikoyan MiG-29s and two Sukhoi Su-25s. The first two attacks last autumn surprised the Ukrainian Air Force – and blew up two MiGs. The third attack in November apparently hit a non-flyable Sukhoi dummy.

But what is the Ukrainian Air Force’s excuse for the apparently airworthy Su-25 that a Lancet hit on Tuesday or shortly before? Video transmitted by a high-flying Russian reconnaissance drone shows one of the 25-pound Lancets heading toward the parked Su-25 – and blowing it to pieces. There is no indication that the Sukhoi was a decoy.

The Ukrainian government knows it has an air defense problem. Just last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said air defense was his country’s “biggest deficit.” The Ukrainian Air Force brigades have defense battalions equipped with weapons, but these short-range weapons cannot fully replace the longer-range missile units.

It was not without reason that the Netherlands organised an emergency operation last month to deliver additional radar equipment and missile batteries to Ukraine – an operation that is now finally paying off with new deliveries of American Patriot and German IRIS-T air defence batteries.

Depending on how the Ukrainian Air Force deploys these new systems, Dolgintsevo could soon benefit from better protection. In the meantime, Ukrainian aircrews may want to avoid the base. And there should be no reason for tilt.

This is because a Su-25 can fly several hundred kilometers with a full tank of fuel. The subsonic fighter does not need to take off from Dolgintsevo to reach the front line in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force has access to around 20 large air bases, dozens of smaller airfields and even highway runways scattered across the country.

In addition, Ukrainian combat brigades usually value unpredictability – anything to make Russian targeting more difficult. Their pilots “almost never take off from an airfield and land on The same thing Airport,” said General James Hecker, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa.

The infrastructure and processes are in place to safely launch and recover Su-25 aircraft at bases that are not under relentless attack by drones. While that wouldn’t protect the low- and slow-flying jets during their risky strike runs with unguided missiles, it should protect them on the ground before and after their missions – even as the Ukrainian Air Force struggles to rebuild its battered anti-aircraft batteries.

The Ukrainians will not run out of Su-25s this summer or this year. The Air Force went to war with about 30 fully operational Su-25s and 13 more that were undergoing overhaul. North Macedonia donated four surplus Su-25s, and Ukrainian technicians have salvaged and repaired some of the 30 or so older Su-25s that have been in storage since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The reinforcements have more than made up for the 18 Su-25s the Ukrainians have lost in combat, including the one shot down in Dolgintseve this week. It is possible, even likely, that the 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade – the only Su-25 unit in the Ukrainian Air Force – actually has more active fighters today than it did 28 months ago, when Russia escalated its war against Ukraine.

This does not mean, however, that the Air Force should throw away its still perfectly functional fighter jets by parking them outdoors at Ukraine’s most vulnerable air base.

Sources:

1. Russian Ministry of Defense: https://x.com/lost_warinua/status/1800523984561459500

2. Volodymyr Zelensky: https://x.com/HowardMortman/status/1790401046445011073

3. James Hecker: https://x.com/paulmcleary/status/1701618184753652098

4. Fighter aircraft: https://www.key.aero/article/how-ukraines-fearsome-su-25-frogfoot-fleet-helping-turn-tide-war

5. Oryx: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html