4-week Gauntlet could cost Bills fifth straight AFC East title

The Buffalo Bills received no favors from NFL planners.

Despite not having to play on Thanksgiving, Christmas or internationally, the Bills were treated to a brutal three-game road stretch that begins a short week in September. To add to the challenge, all three road battles feature opponents with high-profile starting quarterbacks.

Buffalo is one of four NFL teams – joining the Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings – required to play three consecutive road games. Out of the quartet, only Cleveland faces a tougher overall schedule than Buffalo. The Bills are tied for sixth-toughest in the league in opponents’ winning percentage in 2023 (.516).

Buffalo’s difficult period begins on a Monday evening in Week 3 with the visit of the Jacksonville Jaguars to Orchard Park.

Starting with this primetime home game, the Bills will travel to Baltimore where they will face reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on the September 29 edition of Sunday Night Football.

Next, it’s off to Houston where Buffalo will meet the Texans, defending AFC South champions and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud.

Finally, the road swing ends on Monday Night Football at Meadowlands in New Jersey. Trying to win at MetLife Stadium for the first time in three seasons, the Bills will face four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers and the highly anticipated Jets.

NFL data analyst Cynthia Frelund suggests the three-game streak could end up costing the Bills a fifth straight AFC East crown. Her projections put the Miami Dolphins at 10.2 wins and the Bills at 10.0, but she notes that the schedule arrangement cost Buffalo 0.3 wins in her simulations.

“The Bills continue their Week 3 Monday night matchup against the Jaguars with a tough three-game road trip (Ravens, Texans, Jets) that has reduced their win probability by almost 0.3 games compared to before my models don’t take into account their 2024 schedule – and it’s not even their toughest streak! Their toughest streak occurs between weeks 11 and 15: Chiefs, bye, 49ers, at Rams, at Lions.