Astros second-half storylines to watch, starting with trade deadline needs

HOUSTON — By starting the second half of the season with a series victory over the Seattle Mariners, the Houston Astros would find themselves in a place they know well: atop the American League West and in control of their destiny.

It’s remarkable that either outcome is possible after a 7-19 start to the season. The Astros have spent so much energy trying to regain ground lost during their disastrous April, a fact manager Joe Espada acknowledged during the club’s final half at home.

Few teams needed the All-Star break more than Houston. The team returns to action Friday with glaring flaws and still out of playoff position. Here are three storylines to watch as the Astros try to complete their comeback.

Can Houston afford a starting pitcher at the trade deadline?

The Astros will enter the second half of the season with five healthy starting pitchers on their 40-man roster. One has pitched 7 2/3 innings above the A’s ERA. Another has a 5.63 ERA after 17 major league starts. Ronel Blanco leads the injury-ravaged rotation with 109 innings pitched, 16 1/3 shy of his career high.

Adding at least one starter at the trade deadline is almost mandatory, but after the losses of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, will Houston need multiple arms that can eat up innings? Justin Verlander’s slow recovery from a neck injury only adds to those concerns.

Finding a winger in addition to a starter — or simply trading for two starters — would reduce the urgency for McCullers or Garcia to return. As things stand, expecting either man to contribute significantly this season is a dangerous gamble, one that a team that considers itself a World Series contender can’t make.

For the Astros to make the playoffs, they need to find ways to reduce Blanco’s workload and protect their other available arms. Keep in mind that Jake Bloss and Framber Valdez have already been on the disabled list this season due to arm injuries.

Moving to a six-man rotation is the simplest solution, but the club doesn’t even have the manpower to pull that off. Demand could outstrip supply, and the Astros are unlikely to have enough capital to compete with other contenders at the top of the starting pitching market.

The Astros don’t necessarily need to acquire another ace, even though owner Jim Crane likes to bring in superstars at every trade deadline. The fact that he’s less than $4 million away from breaking the second luxury tax threshold will only complicate his stargazing tendencies. The Astros just need capable arms who can slot into the middle of a rotation.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles, however, have much stronger production systems and can easily outclass Houston in the pursuit of starting pitchers. The Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers and Boston Red Sox are all in position to build more attractive packages as well.

Perhaps it’s up to second-year general manager Dana Brown and his baseball operations department to find lesser-known targets, take advantage of the team’s pitching development infrastructure and hope the changes they implement help them improve.

What condition will Kyle Tucker be in when he returns? (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Will Kyle Tucker return with the same efficiency?

Tucker missed Houston’s final 36 games of the first half of the season. Somehow, he still has the highest slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS in the lineup, has drawn more walks than any of his teammates and, according to Baseball-Reference, is still worth more wins above replacement than any Houston hitter.

Tucker’s return to the lineup could reduce the Astros’ need to acquire a hitter at the trade deadline, but whether he’ll return to full strength is a legitimate question.

Tucker fouled his right shin on June 3. He still walks with a slight limp. As of Sunday morning, he had resumed only light on-court activities, which did not include hitting. Asked over the weekend if he still felt pain in his leg, Tucker acknowledged that he did, but added, “I can’t do everything normally right now.”

The Astros described Tucker’s injury as a “right shin contusion.” Brown and Espada both called it a “bone contusion.” Tucker said multiple rounds of imaging were done on his leg, but none revealed anything more serious than what the team described.

If Tucker can’t begin his minor league rehab next week, his chances of returning before Aug. 1 will diminish. If the pain in his leg persists, one has to wonder if this is an injury Tucker will have to deal with when he returns and what impact it could have on his effectiveness.

Houston scored 5.4 runs and averaged 9.3 hits per game in Tucker’s absence, demonstrating the depth and length many thought this offense was capable of producing. Tucker’s return, regardless of his role, will only strengthen it.

How will the first base evolve?

Pitching is Houston’s top priority at the trade deadline, but if Brown and owner Jim Crane insist on adding a hitter, first base is the position that needs the most upgrade.

According to FanGraphs, the Astros are sitting at less than 1.2 wins above replacement for first baseman, even after releasing Jose Abreu on June 14. Cutting him created a void for this season and next, one the club will have to fill at some point.

One would only need to check out Tampa Bay Rays All-Star Isaac Paredes to make that happen. Paredes’ offensive profile is a perfect fit at Minute Maid Park and he’s under club control for three more seasons. The fact that he plays both first and third base could be intriguing for an Astros team preparing for the impending arrival of Alex Bregman as a free agent.

If Houston explores the first base market, Paredes or Rays teammate Yandy Diaz are ideal targets, especially if the Mets retain Pete Alonso and Toronto resists trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Miami’s Josh Bell could be coveted, but his dismal season could diminish the Astros’ interest — especially as Jon Singleton continues to emerge.

Since Abreu’s departure, Singleton is hitting .301/.374/.411 in 83 at-bats. Whether the Astros believe that situation is sustainable could dictate their approach to the deadline at first base. The fact that the team hasn’t ruled out catcher Yainer Diaz as a first base option is also intriguing.

Diaz took ground balls at first base in the team’s final home game before the All-Star break, though that’s hardly news. The impending return of backup catcher Victor Caratini from a hip flexor injury could allow Espada to experiment with Diaz at first base, perhaps platooning him with Singleton on days he doesn’t catch.

(Top photo by Ronel Blanco: Logan Riely/Getty Images)