Football expert disrespects Bills offensive line with surprisingly low ranking

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While there has been plenty of talk this offseason about the Buffalo Bills’ offense and how it will change with the departure of Stefon Diggs, there hasn’t been enough discussion about another area that has also seen changes: the offensive line.

Warren Sharp, the renowned NFL analytics “guru,” has decided to change that discussion not just for the Bills, but for all NFL offensive lines, as he recently released his offensive line rankings ahead of the 2024 NFL season. Buffalo, somewhat confusingly, comes in at No. 22. While one might think there is some solid, solid reasoning behind this ranking, as far as Sharp is willing to reveal, there isn’t much. The blurb for his article reads: “In third-and-long situations, Buffalo’s offensive line allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less at a league-worst 45.9 percent. With no notable changes to the first-team unit, don’t expect much improvement in 2024.”

There are some strange things said in so few words, so let’s break it all down a bit.

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Highlighting a very specific data point on third-and-long doesn’t say much. On the one hand, someone might argue that a good offensive line wouldn’t end up on a lot of third-and-longs, and if they did, they should be protecting themselves better than that. That line of reasoning, however, paints a bit of an incomplete picture, because it doesn’t account for everything that’s out of the offensive line’s control (penalties, play-calling, quarterback decision-making, running back decision-making, etc.). This isn’t to disparage James Cook or Josh Allen, who both had fantastic 2023 seasons; it just means that highlighting that particular data point (without elaborating too much on it) isn’t a good analysis of the situation.

The Bills’ starting offensive line underwent several notable changes this offseason, the most significant being the departure of center Mitch Morse to a salary cap crunch. They also traded a versatile backup in Ryan Bates to the Chicago Bears. Opting to stay in-house in terms of options, the Bills moved 2023 starting left guard Connor McGovern to the starting center spot, with last year’s “jumbo set” lineman David Edwards expected to replace McGovern at guard.

Additionally, the Bills spent several of their third-day picks on offensive linemen, including Georgia center Sedrick Van Pran-Granger. While he may not be a starter this year, Van Pran-Granger could fit into the Bills’ future offensive line plans. Regardless, having a new center playing for Allen is a big deal, and both McGovern and Edwards provide the Bills with a new tool on the offensive line that wasn’t available to them with some of their previous players: length.

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It’s a key component of offensive line play in general, or at least a tool that coaches like their players to have. More than that, it hints once again that the Bills want to commit to running the ball more in 2024 under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. As Erik Turner points out in the tweet above, the push and extension a lineman can get with his arms allows for more separation at the point of attack, which allows linemen to better manage and gain more leverage on the defender they’re blocking.

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All of this is to say that the idea Sharp asserts in his article that there isn’t much change on the Bills’ offensive line is a misconception that isn’t supported by the facts. Not only are there changes throughout the unit, but the change that is occurring is significant and signals the philosophical shift on offense that was expected with Joe Brady at the helm.

If there are other pieces to Sharp’s rankings, it would be interesting to hear or see them. However, given that it is notoriously difficult to develop good, solid, consistent offensive line metrics (ESPN’s block win rate and FTN’s DVOA group’s adjusted line yards being the exceptions), it’s hard to imagine Sharp developing anything that holds water. While block win rate and adjusted line yards are both solid pieces of the puzzle, when it comes to offensive line play, it’s going to require a lot of tape study and knowledge of blocking schemes and techniques. Resources like Duke Manyweather and Brandon Thorn are great for learning more about offensive line play. Their Substack Trench warfare is one of the best places to learn more about the topic.

Sometimes it’s easier to separate the wheat from the chaff. That is, to learn who to listen to and who to ignore when it comes to certain topics. While Sharp has many useful tools and brings great analysis to the football discourse, his opinions on what constitutes good offensive line play don’t deserve much attention.

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