Latest Israel-Gaza: Israeli minister lashes out after US weapons warning: ‘Hamas loves Biden’ | World News

By Alistair Bunkall, Middle East correspondent, in Jerusalem

We knew he was thinking it, but now it was being said out loud.

Although we can assume that the US would have privately informed Israel of its decision to withhold weapons in the event of a “major” Rafah invasion, it shocked Israelis to hear Joe Biden state this so publicly.

Some consider it a betrayal, an outrageous move by the country’s closest ally; others believe it was the predictable consequence of Benjamin Netanyahu’s months-long disregard of American advice and warnings.

Mr Netanyahu, who has not yet commented on the matter, now faces a dilemma: either defy Mr Biden and invade Rafah anyway, or back down and look weak in the face of Israel’s enemies: Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.

“Bibi will say one thing and do the exact opposite,” a veteran Israeli political journalist told me earlier.

“Biden’s mistake was saying it out loud: He doesn’t understand the Middle East,” wrote another.

“Do it, fine, but don’t brag about it.”

But U.S. diplomats I spoke to in Jerusalem this morning say the administration has repeatedly tried to work with Israel over seven months and has had little to show for it.

They gently persuaded Israel to allow more aid into Gaza, to devise a “day-after” plan, to limit civilian casualties, and to put forward a humanitarian plan for Rafah – some of these things happened very slowly, others not at all.

The US is clearly fed up and running out of patience.

The immediate concern is how Mr Biden’s announcement will affect ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Cairo.

The CIA director has just flown back to the Egyptian capital after a brief visit to Tel Aviv and work is underway to close the gaps.

Logically, Hamas is now unlikely to offer any further compromises if it believes that the threat of an invasion of Rafah has been eliminated.

So is Mr. Netanyahu trying to convince the right-wing extremists in his government that his hands are tied and that he has no choice but to accept the deal on the table while buying time for future action?

Or does he lower the temperature, keep negotiations going, but order the IDF to continue with “limited” actions on the edges of Rafah while creeping further toward the center without alerting the White House? Achieve some military objectives without crossing the border.

There is a third option: push hard and soon into Rafah. Leverage the IDF’s considerable arsenal and firepower, gain ground within a limited time frame, and then withdraw to incur the wrath of Washington.

This option could lead to a short-term victory, but would outrage the US government and could jeopardize options for future Israeli operations, for example in Lebanon.

There have been many defining moments in this seven-month war, and this is another.