Impact of La Niña on summer 2024 in Houston

HOUSTON — Meteorological summer is just around the corner. The impacts of a strong El Niño continue to be felt in Houston, with spring precipitation well above normal. However, climate scientists and NOAA predict that the current El Niño will return to La Niña by late summer. So what will this mean for Houston and Southeast Texas as summer approaches?

When we look at ENSO, there are three different phases: El Niño, Neutral and La Niña.

The La Niña phase is characterized by cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This occurs when stronger-than-normal easterly trade winds push warm surface waters westward, causing cold water to “upwell” from the deeper ocean off the coast of South America .

This change in sea surface temperatures affects weather patterns in the United States and around the world. However, impacts during the summer months in the United States and Texas are minimal to none. La Niña doesn’t give Texas and Houston a “warmer” summer, but it can lead to more activity during the Atlantic summer hurricane season. And this can have major consequences for us if a storm is heading our way.

Why is lower wind shear important? Tropical systems must be “vertically stacked” to grow and strengthen. When wind shear is lower, such as during a La Niña summer, this factor can lead to a higher number of storms for the season.

However, when wind shear is present, incipient storms and even already established hurricanes can be weakened and destroyed. This can reduce the total number of storms in the Atlantic.

Combine the La Niña factor of weaker wind shear with the well-above-normal sea surface temperatures currently in the Atlantic and you have the ingredients that could lead to a very active hurricane season.