Houston Texans 2024 Receiving Targets Forecast

Oddly enough, the message predicting reception goals for 2023 never saw the light of day. Whether due to a publishing malfunction or author ineptitude, this article has been discontinued for the first time since 2018.

No more. For those loyal readers, the reception goals prediction 2024 article is back in its truest form.

This annual The message is among my favorite and most stressful of the offseason. Setting goals is like deciding how much candy your partner will give each of your children based on how much they love each of them. This is a strategic guessing game blending the art and science of analytical guesswork for the upcoming 2024 NFL season.

Below is the unfinished article I discovered within the confines of the SB Nation writing platform compared to the actual totals that occurred throughout the season.

The most notable was my underestimation of Nico Collins. His ability to find weak spots in the zone and his devastating defense in the middle of the field were far beyond my expectations. I was pretty right on using TE Dalton Schultz and Robert Woods on offense, but I overestimated the contribution of sixth-rounder Hutchinson.

For the 2024 crop, this is the best arsenal of pass-catching options ever assembled in Texans uniforms…even if they are new uniforms. Perhaps the most similar to the previous team was the 2019 squad that featured DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Bruce Ellington, Lamar Miller and Keke Coutee.

One thing you won’t see on this list is Robert Woods. As of right now, I’m not predicting he’ll make the roster. Teams only have six receivers and Woods’ contract is too big to accept until the end of the season. Cutting Woods will save $5 million on the cap and free the Texans to add talent during the season.

In total, I project Stroud to throw 553 passes next season; 32 per game. He averaged 33 during his rookie season and I predict the Texans will run the ball the same way, if not more. With that, I’m happy to provide you with the Houston Texans’ projected goals for 2024.

Stefon Diggs: 115 (6.8 targets per game)

Do you think it’s high? Think again. The last time Diggs had fewer than 150 targets in a season was in 2019, when he played for the Vikings. If Diggs eclipses this projection, it will indicate Diggs’ complete dominance of the offense and an evolution in the Texans’ scheme. He has talent, but with so many talented mounts to nurture, he may not reap the same rewards as he did in Buffalo.

Nico Collins: 93 (5.5 targets per game)

Giving up on Collins’ goals in a contract year is pretty tough. After a transcendent season, Collins should feel…unsung in response to the addition of Diggs. It will be a two-way fight for a contract extension between Collins and Diggs. Projecting Collins to only receive five to six targets per game is cruel, but given the options Stroud has, it’s the best I can come up with.

Dalton Schultz: 67 (4 targets per game)

Another player who will see his targets decrease because of the arrival of Diggs. Schultz’s contract extension is a sign of his impact on the offense and his importance in the offensive scheme. A tight end who can block and stretch the defense via play action keeps Bobby Slowik’s offense humming. Adding Cade Stover will reduce Schultz’s usefulness in the long term, but until then, Schultz will remain one of CJ Stroud’s top targets.

Tank Dell: 65 (3.8 targets per game)

This one hurts. That’s incredibly low. I’m mainly counting on Dell possibly missing several games due to injury or future injury. Dell’s hot streak before his season-ending injury where he racked up 43 targets, 370 yards and five touchdowns will become standard practice or just a flash in the pan. His off-field relationship deserves more than 65 targets in a season, but you tell me who to shoot from?

Joe Mixon: 42 (2.5 targets per game)

The new starting running back is an exceptional receiving target. He has been targeted 64, 75 and 48 times in each of the last three seasons. So why a drop to 42? Mainly due to a timeshare with Dameon Pierce, but Stroud also doesn’t look to running back as much as other options. Houston will most likely plan for Mixon’s goals.

Noah Brown: 41 (2.4 targets per game)

Houston resigned Brown in a relatively surprising move early in the preseason. Brown exploded for 153 and 172 yards in back-to-back weeks as the offense’s primary receiver. His deep threat ability opened up the offense immensely – something Caserio coveted deeply and ultimately wanted back.

What Brown brings is another piece of depth and a target on the field that you just can’t have enough of to make the playoffs (are we ahead of ourselves?).

John Metchie III: 29 (1.7 targets per game)

Metchie could easily surpass Brown as the fourth wide receiver, but it remains to be seen what his role is in the offense. He needs to prove he’s more than a gadget receiver by chewing up Tank Dell’s snaps in the slot. Metchie III deserved another chance after a productive postseason and a completely healthy offseason.

Caserio not recruiting another wide receiver is a major vote of confidence for Metchie III. If he can become the productive, dynamic zone-breaking receiver he was drafted to be, Houston could have one of the deadliest offenses the league has seen.

Xavier Hutchinson: 25 (1.5 targets per game)

Hutchinson was employed as a speed-option runner early in the season, but saw more action as injuries piled up at the receiver position. Predicting a natural increase in usage is easy, but finding WR6 targets is not. His usage will be in the red zone, on third down and on a set of four to five wide receivers.

Cade Stover: 20 (1.2 targets per game)

Stover’s role is as much of an enigma as any other member of the roster. He only played two seasons as a tight end, but I imagine his snap count will be significantly higher than his target number. Ohio State used Stover in motion to take opponents’ eyes away from their talented receiving options. In Houston, it will be used the same way. Stover will prove to be an offensive weapon and chess piece for years to come.

Dameon Pierce: 18 (1.1 targets per game)

It’s unclear what Pierce’s role in the offense will be. Projecting him to have a thousand yard season is unprofessional. Especially with Mixon’s pass-catching acumen, Pierce’s role as a receiver will be further diminished. I’d be surprised if Pierce received a target per game, but I expect Mixon to miss some time and Pierce to be in the spotlight for about a game.

Brevin Jordan: 17 (1 target per game)

The former University of Miami tight end had a coming out party in the second half of the season and into the playoffs. He’s simply an athlete who has been given enough time to become a competent blocker. He is used as a wing back zone blocker who can

Andrew Beck: 12 (0.7 targets per game)

Is this the first time a guard has been on the projection list? I’m pretty sure of it. Despite this, Beck has been excellent as a blocker this season, also capable of playing tight end and catching. He’s a great fit for the offense, but will he be cut from the team in place of Stover? That remains to be seen, but there could be some duplicate usage here. Even so, Beck is good for a red zone target or receiving a play-action pass almost one more time.

Teagan Quitoriano: 8 (0.5 targets per game)

These targets could be wasted. Quitoriano has yet to establish himself in attack due to his injury. When healthy, he is a capable short-yardage option. His broad frame and long arms serve as a target in the red zone, but Quitoriano appears to be an odd man out on offense with six quality receivers, a solidified back, three other tight ends and two running backs capable of catching.