Brazilian police close net around Jair Bolsonaro

On stage at a conservative political rally earlier this month, Jair Bolsonaro struck a defiant tone, telling a raucous crowd that he would not back down in the face of numerous police investigations into his alleged misconduct in office.

“Although the federal police have come to my house and that of my children three times and I am faced with around 300 cases, it was worth it,” he told the cheering audience. “We will not give in.”

But the stirring rhetoric obscured the far-right ex-president’s increasingly dangerous legal situation. In recent weeks, the federal police – the Brazilian equivalent of the FBI – have released more and more details about the ex-president’s time in office.

Among the most sensational allegations are the claim that he embezzled luxury gifts worth more than a million dollars and the allegation that his government set up a parallel secret service to monitor political opponents.

Commenting on the espionage allegations, Brazil’s attorney general’s office said this month that the spy unit was “just one cell of a larger criminal organization.”

Police are also expected to file charges against Bolsonaro in the coming weeks for his involvement in an alleged coup attempt following the election of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022.

Bolsonaro, a former army captain who served as president from 2019 to 2022, denied any wrongdoing in all cases and sought to portray the investigations as political persecution – a message that resonates with his Christian nationalist base.

But criminal experts and political scientists see this as a prudent strategy by the police, which is releasing revelations to the public bit by bit in order to maximize the pressure on the former president while at the same time preventing him from becoming a political martyr.

“We have (several) very complicated cases and the way they are being conducted is leading to an ever-increasing siege around Bolsonaro,” said Leandro Consentino, political scientist and professor at Insper in São Paulo.

Rafael Alcadipani, a crime expert at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, said the drip-feeding of information was an “investigative strategy that the federal police have opted for.”

“It is a very competent police force with a track record in such cases,” he said, recalling how police investigators exerted public pressure on politicians by selectively releasing information during the “Car Wash” corruption investigation – a decade-old, years-long investigation into a bribery scheme between politicians and business leaders.

Pressure began mounting on the 69-year-old former president in March this year when police recommended charging him with allegedly falsifying his Covid-19 vaccination certificate. Investigators claim he did this during the pandemic to travel to the United States, which had strict entry restrictions at the time.

At the beginning of the month, the police announced that they were recommending further charges, this time in connection with the so-called “jewel affair”.

They claim the former president received luxury gifts – including a Rolex watch, cufflinks and gold-plated jewelry – from Gulf dignitaries and did not officially disclose them, then allegedly sent staff on government planes to sell the goods in the United States.

Days after the allegations – which political opponents quickly labelled corruption – police revealed details of how Brazil’s intelligence service had created a parallel structure to spy on political opponents during Bolsonaro’s time in office. Among the dozens allegedly targeted were Supreme Court judges, the speaker of the lower house of Congress and prominent journalists.

Police also claimed that the intelligence service tried to obstruct investigations into the former president’s son, Flávio Bolsonaro, who was accused of embezzling public funds. The case against Flávio Bolsonaro was later dismissed by a court after much of the evidence was annulled due to procedural errors.

In both the jewels and vaccination certificates cases, federal prosecutors must now decide whether to formally file charges against Bolsonaro. The espionage allegations – as well as separate claims that he conspired with senior military officers to try to overturn the 2022 election results – await further investigation by federal police.

“Given the number of problems, it will undoubtedly cause political damage to Bolsonaro,” Consentino said.

Alcadipani said that given the numerous investigations and evidence, it was almost certain that Bolsonaro would be arrested.

The former president is barred from running for political office until 2030 after the electoral court convicted him in June last year of abusing his presidential powers and misusing the official media in the run-up to the 2022 elections.

Bolsonaro used this ban, as well as increasing police investigations, to claim he was being politically persecuted – a tactic that analysts say is designed to keep his base mobilized.

“It’s an effective way to maintain support, especially among his most loyal followers. (But) it’s not a strategy that will in any way increase his popularity,” said Rafael Cortez, a partner at the consulting firm Tendências.

Bolsonaro has long been compared to Donald Trump, another right-wing politician who is facing numerous legal proceedings that the former US president has described as a “witch hunt”. Bolsonaro said this month he hoped Trump would return to the White House in the November election. He also compared the assassination attempt on the US Republican this month to the stabbing he himself suffered during the 2018 election campaign.

Despite the legal storm, Bolsonaro appears to continue to enjoy strong support among right-wing voters, a development attributed to the country’s deep-rooted polarization.

In March, a poll conducted by Paraná Pesquisas found him slightly more popular than Lula, with 37.1 percent support, while Lula’s support rose to 35.3 percent; however, the difference was within the margin of error.

Bolsonaro narrowly lost the 2022 elections and has spent the past few months touring the country, offering rhetorical support to his political allies ahead of local elections in October.

He has befriended Tarcísio de Freitas, the right-wing governor of the state of São Paulo who is widely predicted to run in the 2026 presidential election.

Analysts are convinced that a victory for de Freitas in Brazil – combined with a possible Trump-friendly presidency in the US – could drastically reduce the political and legal pressure on Bolsonaro.

Local media also reported that several family members, including his wife Michelle and his sons, are considering running for the Senate in 2026. If they are successful, it would also strengthen the former president’s position.

“There is still hope,” Michelle Bolsonaro said at the conservative rally earlier this month. “The right is promoting leaders to lead our country, which is so blessed but is simply poorly run.”

Additional reporting by Beatriz Langella