The luckiest gunners in the Ukrainian army may have survived six attacks

The five-man crew of an entrenched Ukrainian AS-90 self-propelled howitzer may be the luckiest artillery crew member in Russia’s 28-month war against Ukraine. Somewhere along the 700-mile front line, the AS-90 tracked howitzer was recently spotted by a Russian drone and came under relentless fire.

Within a short period of time, the Russians attacked the 50-ton vehicle at least six times, damaging it but not destroying it. That the crew may have survived is partly a coincidence.

But it also underscores the importance of artillery fortifications in a war in which the side with the most – and most durable – howitzers usually wins a battle.

The Russians circulated drone video of the attack on the British-made AS-90, one of at least 50 aircraft that the United Kingdom has promised Ukraine, on or before Wednesday.

After the Russians discovered the 1990s-era AS-90 in its hiding place at the edge of the forest, probably 24 kilometers from the front (the range of the AS-90’s 155-millimeter gun), they attacked. They first fired artillery at the howitzer. When the shells failed to score a direct hit, they dropped two explosive drones with first-person-view cameras on the howitzer.

When the smoke and dust cleared, the AS-90 was still mostly intact. More artillery fire rained down. And then a Lancet attack drone approached. After six consecutive attacks, the AS-90 appeared to be badly damaged. However, it did not explode or burn, giving its crew a chance to bail out and escape on foot.

There are thousands of artillery pieces on both sides of the Russo-Ukrainian war, and some of them are attacked every day. The Russians went to war with around 5,000 heavy guns and rocket launchers and have lost about a third of them. The Ukrainians had fewer than 2,000 guns and rocket launchers 28 months ago and have lost around 500, including at least seven AS-90s.

To offset losses, both sides have built new guns and rocket launchers and brought older systems out of long-term storage. Ukraine has also acquired hundreds of artillery pieces from its allies.

The intensity of the artillery battle has forced gunners on both sides to develop tactics that give them the best chance of survival. If there is a consensus among artillery gunners in the third year of the war, it is that drones pose the greatest threat – and Hide Protection from drones is our top priority.

It has become common practice for the crew of a Russian or Ukrainian howitzer to hide their gun in a patch of forest, cover it with branches, camouflage nets and anti-drone screens, and emerge from hiding just far enough to fire a few shots before scurrying back to cover.

When the shooters move their weapon to a new firing position, they do so carefully – and only when they are reasonably sure that no enemy drones are watching.

The alternative to this entrenched artillery warfare is a more mobile approach known as “shoot and scoot,” in which a crew rolls to a new firing position, fires a few rounds, and then immediately races to a new position, possibly miles away.

The theory behind “Shoot and Scoot” is that by constantly moving you can thwart your opponent’s attempts to locate the origin of incoming projectiles – and shoot back.

Before the era of near-constant drone surveillance, shooting and running might have worked. But now that all modern armies monitor the entire battlefield virtually 24/7, taking to the streets – especially during the day – is downright suicidal. It’s better to duck and sit out the enemy fire.

Analyst Andrew Perpetua, who has been counting vehicle losses in the Russian-Ukrainian war, has long railed against the “shoot and escape” philosophy. He cited as an example the Ukrainian German-made PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, which were designed for high mobility but mostly remain in their camouflaged and fortified firing positions in Ukraine.

“I have heard many people say that the PzH 2000 survived because it fired and fled in Ukraine,” wrote Perpetua. “But in every video I have ever seen of the PzH 2000 – all of them, without exception – there was no shooting and flying. And very often the reason the PzH 2000 survived was that it was not “shoot and dash.”

There is no such thing as “shoot and run,” Perpetua insisted. He would probably argue that the embattled AS-90 would have taken more hits faster if its admittedly lucky crew had decided to break cover and flee.

Sources:

1. B-AREV: https://x.com/trip_to_valkiri/status/1813567289494827092

2. Oryx:

3. Andrew Perpetua: https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1811571490774561211; https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1793536633066897438