Blinken says Hezbollah attacks have cost Israel sovereignty in the north

Israel has “effectively lost its sovereignty” in the north because Hezbollah attacks launched from southern Lebanon have displaced much of the population, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said this week, underscoring the danger of cross-border attacks that threaten to trigger a larger regional war in addition to the Gaza conflict.

Mr. Blinken spoke ahead of a trip by senior White House official Amos Hochstein to Paris for talks on how to defuse the escalating border conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militias in Lebanon. Mr. Hochstein, the top White House official for global energy and infrastructure, is President Biden’s de facto envoy in resolving the border dispute.

Hochstein’s plan to meet with French politicians was confirmed by a person close to the talks, but they spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic issues. Lebanon was a French protectorate after World War I. France still has some influence there and has made proposals to stop the fighting. The White House had no immediate comment.

US authorities have been working for months to prevent a war between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah is backed by Iran and has launched rocket attacks on northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas, the armed group that governs the Gaza Strip and started the current war with its attack on Israel on October 7.

Fears of a full-scale, open war between Israel and Hezbollah have grown in recent weeks as cross-border gunfire has intensified. Israeli politicians have spoken publicly of shifting their military focus from Hamas to Hezbollah, a far more advanced and powerful military threat.

Firas Maksad, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, wrote on XThere was still time for the key players to find a diplomatic solution. Hochstein’s trip would probably take place on Wednesday, he said. “The window for diplomacy is closing, but it is not yet closed,” he said.

Blinken told the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, on Monday that he did not believe the main players in the border conflict – Israel, Hezbollah and Iran – actually wanted to go to war, but that the “dynamics” of the clashes could lead to that. U.S. officials fear that such a conflict could force the United States to come to Israel’s aid.

“Nobody actually wants a war,” Blinken said. He said Iran, a staunch enemy of Israel, “wants to make sure that Hezbollah is not destroyed and that it can keep Hezbollah as a trump card if it needs it if it ever comes into direct conflict with Israel.”

About 60,000 Israelis have fled the area of ​​the border clashes, many of them living in hotels in Tel Aviv for nine months. Referring to this situation, Blinken said: “Israel has effectively lost its sovereignty in the northern quadrant of the country because people do not feel safe to return to their homes.” The fighting has also displaced tens of thousands of people from southern Lebanon.

“If we don’t address the insecurity, people will not have the confidence to return,” Blinken said. To solve the problem, he added, an agreement to withdraw troops from the border is needed.

Mr Blinken pointed out that Hezbollah has said it will stop firing at Israel if there is a ceasefire in Gaza. This “underscores why a ceasefire in Gaza is so important,” he said. But the latest round of negotiations between Israel and Hamas appears to have reached an impasse.

Hochstein has met in recent weeks with Israeli and Lebanese politicians who can convey messages to Hezbollah. The goal is to negotiate a Hezbollah withdrawal to a position far enough from the border to satisfy Israel. In return, Israel could withdraw from some disputed border areas and the United States could provide economic aid to southern Lebanon, analysts say.